Скачать или смотреть The Future of Financial Resilience - Cem Karsan & David Dredge | U Got Options

🎬 Presented by Kai Media & Top Traders Unplugged
🎙️ Hosted by Cem Karsan

In this episode of U Got Options – From the Cboe Floor, Cem Karsan sits down with David Dredge, Principal at Convex Strategies, for a high-level discussion on volatility, portfolio construction, and the macro forces shaping today’s investment landscape. Recording live from the Cboe RMC conference in Munich, Cem leads the conversation through the behavioral, structural, and mathematical underpinnings of options markets, risk management, and diversification. David draws on his deep global experience, spanning decades in Asian and US markets, to share original perspectives on the significance of convexity, correlation breakdowns, and diversification in institutional portfolios.

Together, they analyze why traditional 60/40 strategies may underperform in new regimes characterized by secular demographic shifts, unconventional monetary policy, and rising correlation risk. The discussion covers empirical evidence supporting long volatility and gold as diversifiers, explains the dangers of supply-driven volatility compression, and explores real-world lessons from events like 1987 and 2022, as well as the ongoing evolution of macro flows.

Viewers will come away with a clearer understanding of structural portfolio vulnerability, the role of non-linear risk mitigation, and the complex dynamics that arise when leverage, liquidity, and market structure intersect. This episode is essential viewing for sophisticated investors navigating a world where options, flow, and macro policy drive both risks and opportunities.

Guest:
David Dredge – David is Principal at Convex Strategies and a veteran global macro risk manager. He began his career at Bank of America in San Francisco before relocating to Singapore in 1987, where he witnessed the Asian market crash firsthand. David has spent decades developing and implementing volatility and tail risk hedging strategies across asset classes, with deep expertise in structured products, cross-asset risk, and portfolio construction for sovereign wealth funds and large institutions. Renowned for his practical frameworks and incisive commentary, David is widely regarded as a leading thinker on convexity and compounding dynamics in modern markets.

Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:01 David Dredge’s background & 1987 market lessons
05:33 Rethinking risk: Volatility as “brakes” and portfolio convexity
10:58 Diversification, correlation risk, and the limits of 60/40
17:21 Sharpe, Sortino, and misconceptions in risk metrics
24:44 Implementing convexity: Value investing in vol, FX, and rates
34:12 Supply/demand dynamics in volatility markets
40:48 Finding opportunity across asset classes: US, Asia, FX, and single names
46:26 Demographics, market structure, and global compounding challenges
54:48 Hard realities: Inflation, deflation, and the future of portfolio resilience
59:50 Closing reflections & practical takeaways

Follow David on X: https://x.com/ConvexityDredge
Follow Cem on X: https://x.com/jam_croissant
Audio version: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/

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Theme song – “Options” by DiscoHeadsLive

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