Скачать или смотреть The Rise and Fall of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Title: The Rise and Fall of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
Author: Ambassador Seyed Hossein Mousavian, retired
Abstract: Diplomatic efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have stalled since fall 2022. Iran expressed willingness to cooperate, contrasting with uncertainty from the West. Recent talks on a “trigger or snap back mechanism” risk prompting Iran to suspend Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) safeguards, potentially sparking regional conflict. Two key factors contribute to the uncertainty: conflicting White House statements on diplomacy and the absence of direct talks due to the US special envoy’s leave. Iran’s advancing nuclear capabilities intensify the need for diplomatic solutions.
This article advocates for a temporary JCPOA revival agreement, acknowledging challenges. Drawing from historical lessons of failed “piecemeal deals,” it underscores the necessity of a grand bargain. This comprehensive approach requires resuming direct US–Iran negotiations, addressing Persian Gulf regional issues, involving Iran, the EU, and Ukraine to ensure non-interference in Ukraine, and international mediation for Iran-Israel tensions. These elements provide a holistic path to regional stability.
Keywords: JCPOA, Iran, nuclear deal, Europe, Iran-Israel, Ukraine, Russia, NPT