[CMO]: What would happen if China attacks Taiwan using a military exercise in 24 hours?

(The normal scenario in CMO for this calls for using EMP on Taiwan but doing it differently this time in a more realistic "blockcade" style run)

Disclaimer - this is a GAME, command modern operations, so don't read too much into it :)

Setup - China conducts a military exercise involving 2 groups of Type 55, and one group of Type003 Fujian carrier. US forces are days/weeks away. So how fast can China take out Taiwan's defenses?

- First wave - short range ballistic missiles taking out radar, command and control, as much SAM as possible. DF-15 penetrators for bunkers.
Taiwan has 4 groups of naval forces protecting the island, Type 55's YJ-21 ASBMs easily take care of them. Without naval forces anti-air coverage, it's time to run SEAD on the island.
Start running Cap using J-20's, J11's, etc. PL-15 excellent range simply outmatches the Taiwan Mirage, F16s, and their indigenous fighter.

- Second wave running SEAD from carrier, etc on northern Taiwan.
Secondary targets are penghu island defenses.

- Third wave - take out the remaining targets with DF-17 hypersonic missiles. Move bombers and hitting the rest of the targets, etc.

24 hours passed. China decides the best way to stop US from interfering is to hit TSMC hard (take it out). Launches 2 DF-31 1MT nukes and takes out the city. WIthout TSMC as a prize, there is no strategic reason to protect Taiwan.

Final toll:
China - lost just one Su 30 MKK

Taiwan - lost all of the naval forces (3 kidd class 5 perry class 2 knox class destroyers and frigates).
- 20 F16As
- 58x FCK-1C
- 52x Mirage 2000
- lots of runway disrupted,

Initial Taiwan capability:
Taoyuan AB: 12 Mirage 2000 Multirole Fighters
Taipei Songshan Airport: 12+ F-16, 12 Mirage 2000 Multirole Fighters
Hsinchu AB: 20+ Mirage 2000 Multirole Fighters
Ching Chuan AB: 50+ F-CK-1C Hsiung Ying Multirole Fighters
Hualien B: 3 E-2K Hawkeye 2000 AEW, 30+ F-16 Multirole Fighters
Chiayi AB: 12 F-CK-1C Hsiung Ying Multirole Fighters
Tainan AB: 20+ F-CK-1C Hsiung Ying Multirole Fighters
Gangshan AB: 20+ F-CK-1C Hsiung Yang Multirole Fighters
Pingtung AB: 3 E-2K Hawkeye Multirole Fighters
Jhihhang AB: 20+ F-5E Tiger Multirole Fighters

From FAS.org/wikipedia/other sources - estimated Taiwan airforce:
- 27 older F-5E's
- 100+ IDFs (F-CK-1Cs)
- 45 Mirage 2000's
- 110 (56 on order)

So the scenario actually represent over half of their total strength and relatively speaking it matches the scenario in terms of composition. The other F16 never got off the ground to run their strike missions into China.

Almost all strategic target destroyed and majority of SAMs are gone.

Keep in mind the simulation only shows a small portion of China's ballistic missiles (about 1500 short range, this scenario uses only about 60). Only 24 J20 deployed on land side plus another 24 or so J11s for Cap. Carrier houses 36 J-35's, 12 running cap and rest used for SEAD. The majority of the Taiwan airforce losses is due to type 52D and type 55 destroyers. In this scenario China has air superiority within basically 12 hours into the fight.

Also, this scenario has Taiwan running cap and in high alert... in reality it wouldn't be the case so the losses wou;d most certainly be worse.