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80% Premium Shock: Japan Pays $130, COMEX $71 – Bank Shorts Imploding NOW

January 1–2, 2026. The silver market just split in two.
Western screens showed around $71–$72 per ounce, while multiple reports claimed physical silver in Japan was quoted near $130 when inventory was even available, an ~80% premium over paper price.

That is not a normal premium. That is a warning that price discovery is breaking.
In this 45-minute breakdown, I explain exactly what an 80% premium shock means, why it signals a squeeze, and how “bank shorts imploding” becomes possible when physical access replaces paper confidence.

In this video I break down:
The 80% premium math in plain sight
Paper reference price near $71
Japan physical quote near $130
The gap is the story, because it represents availability stress
What this really means
Spot price is a paper reference
Premium is the price of access

When premium explodes, the market is no longer pricing silver, it is pricing delivery risk

Why this is happening during a volatility regime

CME has already been using margin hikes aggressively as volatility controls

Margin pressure can force liquidations, but it cannot create new physical supply

The bank short narrative, translated into mechanics

Public data does not identify which bank is short

But the squeeze mechanics are real when hedging flow meets physical tightness

If physical demand stays firm, paper suppression tools lose power
The key signal most people miss
A premium blowout in one region spreads fast
Because metal flows toward the highest bid, and the West must reprice or lose supply
This is educational analysis only. I’m not a financial advisor. Always do your own research.

Why this matters RIGHT NOW

80% premiums do not exist in healthy markets

When Japan is paying up, it means the market is rationing silver through premiums instead of supply

A decoupling between paper and physical is how squeezes start, quietly, before the mainstream admits it

The Three Thresholds Explained
THRESHOLD 1 — PREMIUM PRESSURE PHASE
Retail inventory tightens, dealers widen spreads, and premiums rise while paper price lags.

THRESHOLD 2 — PREMIUM CRISIS PHASE
Regional physical markets detach from spot, sourcing becomes inconsistent, and access becomes the real price.

THRESHOLD 3 — AVAILABILITY PRICING PHASE
Paper signals lose authority. The market prints whatever price is required to clear real metal.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
I am not a financial advisor. This video is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this video is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Reported physical prices vary by dealer, location, taxes, fabrication, and inventory conditions. Some Japan premium reports circulating online cannot be independently verified by me. Always consult qualified professionals before making decisions.

DATA SOURCES
MarketWatch coverage on CME margin changes and silver volatility
AP reporting on silver dropping after CME raised margin requirements
Public commentary and analysis referencing Japan physical silver quotes near $130 during early January 2026 conditions

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