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Side Event of the Rīga Conference 2021
CEPA’s latest report, “Close to the Wind”, addresses the defence and security challenges of the Baltic Sea region, the region most at risk of direct attack from Russia and, from a military point of view, a single operational environment. Though the combined forces of NATO, or even of just NATO’s European Allies, greatly exceed Russia’s, Russia has strengthened its quantitative and qualitative advantage in the Baltic Sea region, across the full spectrum of capabilities, from hybrid/grey zone to nuclear strike. Political and military support from across the Alliance and its critical partners, Sweden and Finland, are vital to effective deterrence and, if necessary successful defence. This deterrence is also based on reliable enablement of SACEUR’s AOR and the reliability of reinforcement, all of which depends on repeated realistic exercising, which is currently lacking. A combination of stronger security cultures, greater national capabilities, and more credible involvement of regional partners and Allies beyond the region has improved NATO’s deterrence and defence posture in the Baltic region. It is hard to identify a period in recent history when national efforts and regional security ties have been stronger. But much remains to be done—not just for regional security: Europe’s stability and NATO’s credibility are at stake.

Lieutenant General (Retd.) Benjamin Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis
Linas Kojala, Director of the Eastern Europe Studies Centre, Lithuania
Matti Anttonen, Permanent State Secretary at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland
Prof James Henry Bergeron, Political Advisor, NATO Allied Maritime Command
Moderator: Edward Lucas, Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis