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Fed cut rates, but 30-year mortgage rates won’t budge. Is bond-market plumbing blocking the transmission?


The Fed has been cutting, yet *U.S. 30-year mortgage rates are still hovering in the low 6% range**. This video breaks down why the usual “Fed cuts → cheaper mortgages” story can fail when **long rates, MBS spreads, volatility, and balance-sheet constraints* do the real pricing.

We walk through the setup (Fed funds vs. 10-year yields vs. Freddie Mac mortgage rates), then the mechanism: *mortgage-backed securities (MBS) pricing**, the **lock-in effect* that suppresses refinancing, and how *negative convexity / duration hedging* can change the normal feedback loop. Finally, we connect it to cross-asset implications—**U.S. housing activity, recession risk signals, equities/credit sensitivity to term premium**—and the *specific indicators to watch over the next few weeks* (MOVE, DGS10, MBA refi, and Fed balance sheet data).

If you’re a U.S. retail investor trying to understand what’s happening to **housing affordability, jobs sensitivity, and portfolio rate risk**, this is the “receipts-first” version—no doom, no hype, just mechanics and data.



The Receipts (Data & Sources)
*30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (PMMS)* – Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey)
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
*30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (FRED: MORTGAGE30US)* – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MO...
*10-Year Treasury Yield (FRED: DGS10)* – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
*Federal Funds Rate (FRED: FEDFUNDS)* – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FE...
*Fed Balance Sheet / SOMA MBS Holdings (H.4.1)* – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releas...
*Outstanding Mortgage Rate Distribution / Lock-in Context (NMDB)* – FHFA National Mortgage Database
https://www.fhfa.gov/data/nmdb
*Treasury Quarterly Refunding (issuance guidance)* – U.S. Department of the Treasury
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issu...
*Treasury Rate Volatility (ICE BofA MOVE Index)* – ICE (commonly distributed via market data platforms)
Example history page: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EMO...


Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All data is sourced from official government or regulatory releases where possible. Past performance is not indicative of future results.



#Investing #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields
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