Скачать или смотреть China's Communist Leader Xi has chosen an unwinnable border conflict with India

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China's Communist Leader Xi has chosen an unwinnable border conflict with India.

For the past 30 years, China has been waging an all-out assault against the Indian subcontinent, starting with the orchestrated murder of Rajiv Gandhi.

The military conflict between China and India, which has resulted in rival force build-ups and sporadic skirmishes, has been obscured by the international attention on the conflict in Ukraine. The two Asian superpowers have been engaged in a protracted military standoff along their disputed Himalayan border for more than three years.

Given the extensive advanced military deployments by both sides, the possibility of this conflict developing into brutal, violent battles or perhaps a small border war can no longer be dismissed.

It is also possible for the opposite to occur. For the Group of Twenty (G20) summit in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to New Delhi could serve as a catalyst for efforts to diffuse the potentially dangerous standoff, which was brought on by China's covert territorial incursions into the most northern Indian territory of Ladakh in April-May 2020.

Due in large part to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's concentration on placating Beijing in order to weaken the China-Pakistan axis, India was unable to predict the Chinese aggression. Mr. Xi, however, made a grave error in assuming that China would be able to force India to accept the altered territorial status quo as a fait accompli without prompting a forceful military response.

India and China are at odds after both countries sent more forces than the other. India is openly testing Chinese might and capacity in a way that no other nation has done in this century, even at the danger of starting a full-scale war.

Discomforted by the formidable military threat posed by India, Mr. Xi's leadership has attempted to put more pressure on that country by stationing more Chinese personnel in offensive positions, building new military infrastructure along the frontier, and launching infowar and psychological operations.

But all of this runs the risk of turning India into a lifelong foe and even pushing it closer to the US. A situation like that is not in China's best long-term interests. The pomp and show Mr. Modi received recently during a state visit to the U.S., as well as U.S. President Joe Biden's courting of India, have led Beijing to believe that New Delhi is strengthening its ties with Washington in an effort to balance out China.

The last of four fundamental defense-related agreements that Washington routinely enters into with military partners was completed by New Delhi after China's border aggressiveness started.

In the Quad alliance with Washington, Tokyo, and Canberra, India has also become increasingly integrated. All of the Quad partners are currently present at the yearly Malabar naval war games, which were begun by India.

Meanwhile, Mr. Xi has less time to complete what he has referred to as a "historic mission" - the integration of Taiwan – due to the military stalemate with India. By securing a whole Chinese theater force that could have been used against that island democracy, India is assisting Taiwan's defense.

China faces a "two-front" problem as a result of the standoff, according to Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations for the U.S. Navy, who said last year: "They [Indians] now force China to not only look east, toward the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, but they now have to be looking over their shoulder at India."

Fundamentally, Mr. Xi has chosen an Indian border dispute that China cannot win. India boasts the best skilled soldiers in the world for mountain combat, but the Chinese military primarily relies on conscripts.

A deadly standoff between the two nuclear-armed titans of the population would be viewed internationally as a loss for China, who would have been on the winning side. That would severely harm Mr. Xi's reputation.

Therefore, Mr. Xi may run the risk of being made to pay for his own mistakes if the conflict with India were to worsen.
Would Mr. Xi be willing to find solutions to the military problem with India in light of this?

World leaders, including American Vice President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and potentially Russian President Vladimir Putin, will gather for the G20 conference on September 9–10 in Argentina. However, it would be strange if Mr. Xi visited New Delhi without attempting to diffuse the border conflict at a time when tens of thousands of troops on each side are engaged in combat on the Himalayan peak.

Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi did not have a private meeting like they did with the other leaders at the previous G20 summit in Bali, but they did interact briefly at a cultural event in front of the cameras.