Скачать или смотреть Assessing the Sustainability of U S Public Debt as Well as Private Household Debt

The project explores the sustainability of U.S. public (government) debt and private (household and corporate) debt using both definitions and quantitative models. It clarifies that public debt, also called national, federal, or sovereign debt, consists of Treasury securities held by the public and intragovernmental accounts like Social Security. Private debt includes household obligations such as mortgages, car loans, student loans, credit cards, and medical debt, as well as corporate bonds and business loans. Recent trends show U.S. household debt exceeding $17.5 trillion and credit card debt above $1.3 trillion, while corporate debt is around $12.7 trillion and historically high, with rising delinquencies among younger, lower-income, and subprime borrowers. The text describes how a U.S. sovereign default, likely triggered by a failure to raise the debt ceiling, would cause global financial panic, spiking interest rates, a stock crash, dollar weakness, bank stress, and severe recession risk. By contrast, widespread private defaults generate bank losses, tighter credit, falling consumer spending, recession risk, and possibly housing and corporate stress, similar in spirit to 2008 but more consumer-debt-driven today. A deterministic national debt model projects rising debt, interest payments, and debt-to-GDP under assumptions of 5% debt growth, 2% GDP growth, and gradually rising interest rates, while a parallel credit card model shows debt and default losses outpacing household income growth. The author then builds Monte Carlo simulations for both government and household debt, adding random shocks to growth, rates, and defaults to generate 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile paths for debt-to-GDP and debt-to-income ratios. Stress-test scenarios further explore high rates, faster debt growth, low GDP growth for government, and aggressive borrowing, stagnant income, and default shocks for households, visualized with Plotly in a “Macro Debt Risk Dashboard” built in Dash. FRED data is pulled to compute historical U.S. debt-to-GDP, household debt-to-income, and debt service ratios, revealing that U.S. debt has climbed from ~30–40% of GDP in the 1960s–70s to around 120% today, while household DSR is elevated but not at extreme historical levels. Finally, the text emphasizes that there is no universal magic debt-to-GDP threshold, but professionals watch metrics like interest expense as a share of GDP and tax revenue, the primary deficit, and debt maturity structure to identify quantitative red flags and potential tipping points.