Скачать или смотреть Honest thoughts from a climate scientist on what it means to exceed the 1.5°C global warming target

In 2015, global nations pledged to take actions to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the pre-industrial baseline temperature in what has come to be known as the "Paris Agreement." In 2023 and 2024, global temperatures approached or even exceeded that warming target on a temporary basis--and heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions reached record levels amid an extraordinary spate of record-breaking heat, torrential downpours, and wildfire events. Recent research suggests that the world is on track to greatly exceed 1.5°C of global warming in the years to come--with 2.5-3.0°C of warming on our current trajectory by the end of this century unless there is a dramatic near-term course correction.

In this monologue, which was originally inspired by a lengthy response to a journalist in early 2025, I offer my honest professional and personal thoughts on what it will mean to exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target--both for the physical Earth system and for global societies and ecosystems. I reflect on what "failure" means in this context--and why I am both deeply concerned about what may be on the horizon, but also more determined than ever to pursue ambitious solutions that reduce harm and improve outcomes in a warming world.