Скачать или смотреть When Is the Next Ice Age Really Coming?

Every single time climate change comes up in conversation, like clockwork, someone inevitably brings up Milankovitch cycles. "The climate has always changed," they say. "It's just Earth's natural astronomical cycles." And with a smug air, as if they'd just discovered fire, they sweep away decades of scientific research with a wave of their hand.
The problem? They're mixing apples and oranges - or rather, they're confusing processes that operate on completely different timescales. And this isn't an innocent mistake: it's a distortion that needs to be dismantled piece by piece, with hard numbers.

Let's start with the facts. Milankovitch cycles are real - they exist, and no serious scientist denies them.
Named after Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovitch, who in the 1920s calculated how three orbital parameters of Earth influence the amount and distribution of solar energy reaching our planet.
The first is the eccentricity of Earth's orbit - how much our path around the Sun deviates from a perfect circle. This parameter oscillates with a main period of about 100,000 years.
The second is obliquity, the tilt of Earth's axis relative to the orbital plane, which varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees with a cycle of about 41,000 years.
The third is the precession of the equinoxes, a wobbling motion of Earth's axis that completes a full rotation in about 26,000 years.
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Credits: Ron Miller, Mark A. Garlick / MarkGarlick.com ,Elon Musk/SpaceX/ Flickr
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00:00 Intro
0:54 Milankovitch Cycles Are Real
2:35 first crucial point: the timescale
4:28 second point: the direction of change
5:44 third point : the magnitude of forcing
6:24 fourth point: the geographic patterns of warming
7:16 fifth point: CO2 concentration
9:10 sixth point: what scientists say
10:10 seventh point: direct evidence of anthropogenic origin
11:53 eight point: the rate of ocean acidification
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