Скачать или смотреть Livestock analyst says “Let the market do the job of the market” | Cattle Call

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It’s been a turbulent stretch for the cattle markets, and market analyst Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima & Varilek says much of the recent volatility stems from uncertainty and government rhetoric.

“We’ve had four limit-down days in feeder cattle and one of them expanded the limit. We’ve dropped feeder cattle prices over $60 [per hundred weight] in futures… Live cattle over $25.”

He said the sudden collapse was fueled in part by President Trump's announcement of lowering beef prices by importing more beef from Argentina.

“A lot of that on rhetoric out of Washington about we need to lower beef prices for the consumer’s sake,” he said. “Let the market do the job of the market. The market will determine what’s too high. The market will determine what’s too low… This intervention leads to bigger problems."

EARLY CASH TRADE THIS WEEK

Despite the rough week, Kooima noted some positive signs early this week. “I was encouraged that there was a packer that was a willing buyer — two of them actually — that were a willing buyer at $232, which I hope helps to stabilize things a bit,” he said.

CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO STILL ON PAUSE

Among the headlines pressuring futures, Kooima said the border situation with Mexico is the most significant factor.

“I think this issue is much more political than it is scientific. I really believe that there is a scientific protocol that would safely allow those feeder cattle to come across the border… But it still feels like it would be later rather than sooner and maybe not until colder weather.”

A SMALL BITE OF THE BEEF PICTURE

While much attention has been given to the U.S. opening beef imports from Argentina and Brazil, Kooima said those are smaller pieces of the puzzle. For example, he says the quadrupling of Argentina’s quota to 80,000  metric tons is meaningful in trade terms, but modest when compared to U.S. beef processing volumes. It represents less than 1% of U.S. annual production. Kooima says while it may help with specific input streams, like lean trimmings for ground beef, it’s unlikely to substantially change the broader processing or beef‑supply picture.

“It would amount to something like a day and a half’s worth of slaughter for us.”

Still, with so many major developments pending, from trade negotiations to the border status, Kooima cautioned producers to stay alert. “You’ve got enough headlines to choke a horse,” he said. “Keep your tennis shoes on, stay ready to go."

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