Скачать или смотреть The 3 Ds of Demographics, Debt and Development: Korea's Economic Crossroads

In this insightful video, Paul Cavey explores South Korea's economic landscape through the lens of the "Three Ds": Demographics, Debt, and Development. Drawing parallels with Japan's economic challenges, Cavey delves into the Bank of Korea's recent research, highlighting the nation's rapid aging population, escalating private sector debt, and the competitive pressures from China's rise. He examines how these structural issues impact Korea's growth model, interest rates, and market outlook, offering a compelling analysis for investors and economists. Visit EastAsiaEcon.com for more data-driven insights and visualizations on Asia's economic trends.

00:00 - Introduction: Parallels with Japan's Three Ds
00:45 - Introducing Korea's Three Ds: Demographics, Debt, and Development
01:40 - Bank of Korea's Quote on Korea's Middle-Aged Economy
02:50 - Significance of Bank of Korea's Research for Policymakers and Investors
03:20 - Overview of Recent Bank of Korea Reports
04:00 - The First D: Demographics and Super Aging
05:00 - Speed of Aging in Korea Compared to OECD Countries
05:41 - Future Projections: Population Over 65 by 2045
06:11 - Population Peak and Working-Age Decline
06:44 - Distinguishing Longevity from Falling Fertility
07:29 - Fertility Rates in Korea and the Region
08:39 - Economic Consequences: Potential Growth and Interest Rates
10:00 - The Second D: Debt Levels in Private Sector
10:36 - Comparison of Debt with Japan's Historical Peak
11:30 - Household Debt Focus and Real Estate Borrowing
12:43 - Diversion of Resources from Innovation
13:33 - Short-Term Implications for Bank of Korea Policy
14:33 - Financing Issues and Unproductive Sectors
15:33 - The Third D: Development Model Challenged by China
16:16 - Trade Deficits and Market Share Losses
17:00 - Bank of Korea's Analysis of China's Competition
17:37 - Threats to Key Industries: Autos, Ships, and Chips
18:20 - Summary of Korea's Three Ds
18:41 - Structural Issues and Resolution Challenges
19:17 - Recommended Reforms: Childcare, Macroprudential Measures, and Investments
20:00 - Government Response and Implementation Difficulties
20:59 - Cycle vs. Structure: Market Implications
21:41 - Negative Outlook for Growth, Inflation, and Rates
22:02 - Closing: Resources and Website Recommendation