Скачать или смотреть Secret Signs from Space? ULF Waves and TEC Anomalies for Earthquake Forecasting

Is the Earth's upper atmosphere broadcasting warnings before a major earthquake strikes? Scientists are investigating seismo-electromagnetic phenomena—disturbances in the atmosphere and space that precede seismic activity—as a crucial step towards developing robust earthquake forecasting systems.
This exploration delves into the relationship between major earthquakes, specifically those of magnitude M 7 or greater, and anomalies observed in the ionosphere, focusing on Total Electron Content (TEC), the integrated electron density measured using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals. Comprehensive analysis confirms that consistent precursor signals are statistically significant and regional, rather than globally uniform, suggesting dependence on underlying subsurface properties.
Key Findings in Pre-Earthquake Signals:
1. TEC Regional Patterns: In the 12 hours prior to earthquakes of magnitude M 7 or greater:
◦ The Japanese region consistently shows a median negative TEC anomaly (suppression) of around 0.5 TECU, typically appearing between 3 and 8 hours before the event.
◦ The South American region shows a median TEC enhancement of up to approximately 2 TECU, usually 7 to 10 hours before the event.
2. ULF Wave Activity: Statistical analyses using satellite data (such as DEMETER and CSES) show a significant enhancement of Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) wave activity in the nighttime ionosphere. For earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or higher, anomalous ULF electric field disturbances observed by CSES mainly occurred 11 days before the earthquake, and then again 2 days before the earthquake to the day of the event. These disturbances are highly concentrated spatially, occurring within 200 km of the epicenter.
3. Magnitude and Extent: Generally, the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the earlier the pre-earthquake anomalous disturbances tend to appear and the wider the range of anomalies observed. Earthquakes occurring in the sea area tend to produce more detectable pre-seismic electromagnetic disturbances compared to those occurring on land.
4. ELF/Schumann Resonances: Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) signals, specifically perturbations in the Schumann resonances band (3 to 50 Hz), have been observed up to twenty days before low-to-medium magnitude earthquakes (M3.5–M6.5). For these precursor signals to be reliably observed, the earthquake magnitude must be greater than M4.0 and the epicenter distance from the observation site should be shorter than 300 km.
These complex, correlated signals strongly support the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. The documented regional and temporal patterns of these precursors offer a valuable input for multimodal earthquake forecasting systems.

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#EarthquakeForecasting #SeismoElectromagnetics #ULFwaves #TECanomalies #EarthquakePrediction #Ionosphere #Geophysics #SeismicPrecursors #LAICmodel #DEMETERsatellite #CSES #SchumannResonance #NaturalHazards #Science