Vardan Aramyan - Armenian Economy in 2024 | Ep 362 - Sep 13, 2024

Vardan Aramyan - Armenian Economy in 2024 | Ep 362 - Sep 13, 2024
Conversations on Groong

Topics:
Inflation
Monetary Policy
Economic Performance
Remittances
National Debt
Economic Outlook
References

Guest:
Mr. Vardan Aramyan - Fmr. Minister of Finance, Republic of Armenia

Hosts:
Hovik Manucharyan - TW/@HovikYerevan
Asbed Bedrossian - TW/@qubriq

00:00:00 Intro to show with Mr. Vardan Aramyan, former Minister of Finance of Armenia
00:00:33 How is Armenia managing its inflation?
00:01:41 Consumer sentiment
00:02:32 Consumer bias: Which consumers are affected how
00:03:17 Type of growth in the economy, is it inclusive growth?
00:04:21 Managing expectations
00:07:02 The gray part of society
00:11:27 Managing expectations vs consumption - discrepancies arise
00:12:10 Has consumer debt increased since 2018?
00:14:02 Factors contributing to dramatic increase in consumer debt
00:17:36 The factors deteriorating the consumer balance sheet
00:18:14 What are the key factors that influence Armenia's economy?
00:18:59 Influece of exchange rate on inflationary environment
00:19:35 Policy weaknesses in CBA approach
00:20:33 Monetary policy
00:21:03 Is current 7.75% Refinance rate optimal for economic growth in Armenia?
00:25:05 Does the CBA manipulate the Dram exchange rate?
00:26:21 Why is price stability the goal of central banks?
00:31:22 Why is the interest rate markup charged by banks to consumers so high, and should it be more regulated?
00:35:55 Decrease in remittances to Armenia, and the appreciation of the Dram currency
00:39:26 After blocking Mir payment system did some of the remittances go to cash?
00:40:40 How do migrant worker dynamics affect the flow of money in and out of Armenia?
00:44:54 Is there a labor shortage in Armenia, and what can it be attributed to?
00:46:58 Are remittances predictable, manageable, or should Armenia find ways to not rely on them?
00:51:00 What can the economic slowdown be attributed to?
00:54:59 Are these re-exports sanction busting methodologies?
00:55:41 Europe buying Russian gas rebranded as Azerbaijani gas
00:56:40 On the rosy re-export numbers covering up real ecnoomic weaknesses
00:59:26 Why is the government missing its marks in projecting both revenues and expenditures?
00:59:47 On the revenue side
01:01:17 The expenditure side
01:02:15 What is the "reserve fund" the minister of finance referred to?
01:04:11 Assessing Armenia's national debt
01:12:33 About Mr. Vardan Aramyan

Episode 362 | Recorded: September 11, 2024
https://podcasts.groong.org/362