The State of Mind. Transformations of public opinion in Russia 2018-2023 | Ekaterina Schulmann

Russian politics has shifted to more aggression, but what do Russian people think? Using a range of sociological data collected by official and independent polling agencies as well as circumstantial evidence and indirect markers of behavioral changes, including demographic data and crime statistics, Ekaterina Schulmann attempts to trace an evolution of public opinion in Russia from the final erosion of the Crimean consensus in 2018 until into the full-scale war in 2023. Inglehart–Welzel World Values Survey results and studies of proto-party groups ("political preference clouds'') are used in this overview in an attempt to sketch possible lines of behavior of a post-authoritarian society in a weakened state of power.

‪@Ekaterina_Schulmann‬ is a political scientist and a major voice in the Russian opposition. Her contributions reach large audiences. Over one million people follow her analyses on her YouTube.

After speaking out against Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine, she left the country in the spring of 2022. She has been Fellow at Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin. On May 4, 2023, she followed an invitation of FRIAS and ‪@zwetajewa-zentrum‬ an der Universität Freiburg e.V.

More information about the event: https://www.frias.uni-freiburg.de/de/...

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction by Dr. Arndt Michael (Colloquium Politicum)
05:53 Start of presentation by Prof. Ekaterina Schulmann
08:26 How far can we trust the polls?
16:46 Why does public opinion matter in non-democracies?
20:24 Presidential Ratings over time
28:57 Institutional trust in Russian society
32:50 Eroding trust after the Crimean Consensus
36:42 Age as the main predictor for attitude towards the war
43:10 Peace Agreement or March on Kyiv?
48:01 Calm vs. Anxiety: Mood in Russian society
52:40 Feelings about war on Ukraine
56:45 Media Consumption and attitudes
59:45 Russians' hierarchy of values
01:04:25 Russians' preferred political system
01:05:51 Conclusion
01:10:48 Questions from the audience

The event was part of the "Freiburg Horizons" lecture series, organized by the Freiburg Institute for Advanced Studies (FRIAS). The discussion was moderated by Dr. Arndt Michael, director of the Colloquium Politicum. Since 2015, the Freiburg Horizons have been addressing current and socially relevant topics through lectures, panel discussions and symposia. Lectures from previous semesters that took place in the context of the Freiburg Horizons are available in the FRIAS Mediathek: www.frias.uni-freiburg.de/mediathek.
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