Скачать или смотреть The Fed's Favorite Lie: CPI vs. PCE & The Real-Time Truflation Index

Which inflation number should you trust? We break down the war between the three key metrics: CPI consistently runs higher than PCEPI—the index the Fed (FOMC) actually uses to set interest rates. Learn the critical methodological differences (substitution effect, housing weight) that create this gap. Plus, we introduce Truflation, the decentralized, real-time metric that claims to be 30 times faster and more transparent than monthly government reports.

The Data Dividend: CPI, PCE, and Inflation Index Credibility
The debate over accurately and promptly measuring the cost of consumer goods and services is central to monetary policy, market stability, and your financial planning. This video dives into the methodological differences between the official indices and analyzes the rise of a new, transparent challenger built on blockchain technology.

In this critical analysis, we cover:

The Fed’s Preference (PCEPI): Why the FOMC favors the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI). We explain that PCEPI has a broader scope (includes medical spending on your behalf) and more quickly adjusts for consumer substitution (switching from beef to chicken), which is why it consistently yields a lower inflation rate than the CPI.

The CPI Gap: Why the Consumer Price Index (CPI) consistently yields a higher inflation rate. The CPI uses a less flexible formula and places a significantly higher weight on shelter/housing costs (roughly double that of PCE), causing it to react more strongly to housing volatility.

The Truflation Challenger: Addressing the shortcomings of slow, monthly government reports, we detail Truflation. This metric uses a blockchain-based decentralized network to collect millions of real-time price points daily. Truflation aims to be 30 times faster, providing investors and businesses with immediate, transparent data.

The Policy Stakes: Ultimately, these methodological debates matter because the Fed's decisions on interest rates hinge on the perceived credibility and accuracy of these indices, especially as the lag between data collection and release (often 45 days) compromises timely policymaking.

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