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A State of the Union light on foreign policy, the case against war with Iran, cartel violence in Mexico — and the Pentagon’s showdown with Anthropic.

In this episode, Jake and Jon march through a volatile week in national security. They react to the foreign policy section of Trump’s State of the Union address — light on China, ambiguous on Ukraine and Gaza, and hinting at a possible new red line on Iran’s missile program. They then lay out a forceful case against U.S. military strikes on Iran, questioning the urgency, the objective, the risks to U.S. forces in the region, and the absence of congressional authorization. From there, they examine the fallout from the killing of cartel leader El Mencho and what it means for Mexico’s stability under mounting U.S. pressure. The episode closes with a look at the Pentagon’s standoff with AI company Anthropic — and what the fight over autonomous weapons reveals about who controls AI in warfare.

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Chapters:
0:00 - Introduction and State of the Union Overview
2:18 - Olympic Highlights: Alysa Liu & Johannes Klæbo
5:33 - US Hockey Gold: Drama on the Ice and Political Fallout
9:34 - Analyzing the State of the Union: Length and Tone
11:18 - The Absence of China in the President’s Speech
18:48 - Iran Red Lines: ICBMs and Nuclear Breakthroughs
27:06 - The Risks of Military Action Against Iran
45:12 - Mexico: The Arrest of "El Mencho" and US Pressure
57:26 - The Pentagon vs. Anthropic: The Battle for AI Safety
1:06:54 - Good Diplomacy, Bad Diplomacy: Lula’s Glove and the French Dispute