Скачать или смотреть A sea of uncertainty

Little clarity; risk aversion comes to the fore. Recently, we are seeing increasingly stronger signals indicating that the rally on global markets may soon be over. Indeed, the quick end of the pandemic and return of the economy on a steady growth path have already been priced in. Now, we need to wait until reality confirms these bets. And this is not that simple – cautious comments from central banks and the recent series of downgrades in macro forecasts for key economies suggest that the situation in many regions remains uncertain. In Russia, these factors are exacerbated by geopolitics – threats of new sanctions from Washington, together with the rise of domestic protests are forcing many investors to reduce their positions in Russian assets. This has been clearly reflected in the dynamics of the ruble.

Geopolitics and markets
• Russian economy: 2020 – Better than expected
FX and interest rates
• Ruble and the CBR rate – RUB FX rate shaped by sanctions risk
• Euro and the ECB – Euro trading sideways
• $ and the Fed – US Fed cautious about economic recovery outlook
Commodities
• Oil – Oil supply will start to grow in the coming week
• Gold – Prices stable
Key dates
• 1 February – Russia GDP flash estimate for 2020; expect -3.6% y/y
• 1 February – Russia, EU and US manufacturing PMI (January)
• 3 February – Russia, EU and US services PMI (January)
• 3 February – EU inflation (January); expect -0.2% y/y
• 5 February – Russia inflation (January); expect 5.2% y/y
• 5 February – US unemployment rate (January); expect 6.7%