Скачать или смотреть [audio] EU institutionalizes China risk, Wall Street trades Trump risk

EU institutionalizes China risk, Wall Street trades Trump risk

① Structural Shift in EU 5G and Critical Infrastructure Regulation

The European Union has upgraded its 5G security policy from non-binding recommendations to legally enforceable rules, mandating the phase-out of high-risk vendors. As a result, the use of equipment from Huawei and ZTE is no longer a national or operator-level choice but an EU-wide compliance issue. Once a vendor is designated as high-risk, telecom operators must remove critical network components within a 36-month timeline. Non-compliance is treated as a regulatory breach with financial penalties, directly affecting operators’ P&L. Importantly, this framework is positioned to extend beyond telecom into 18 critical sectors, signaling a broader supply-chain and tech-sovereignty strategy.

② Trump’s Tariff Threats and the Conditional Logic of the TACO Trade

During the January 2026 Davos period, statements by Donald Trump reinforced the view that tariffs function more as negotiating leverage than as fixed trade policy. Markets reacted with sell-offs on tariff threats, followed by rebounds once conciliatory signals emerged, reinforcing the so-called TACO trade. This strategy assumes that rising market and political costs will eventually lead Trump to soften or delay measures. However, as the TACO narrative becomes widely accepted, market reactions may weaken, reducing the incentive for policy reversal. Investors therefore need to focus less on final tariff outcomes and more on the feedback loop between policy signals and market responses.

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