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The Dark Side of Negotiation: Manipulation or Influence
Manipulation or influence - Sunk Cost
Dark Side - Sunk Cost
In 1985, psychologists Hal Arkes and Catherine Blumer revealed a fascinating mental trap: the sunk cost fallacy. The more time, money, or effort we’ve already invested, the harder it becomes to walk away — even when continuing makes no sense. In their first experiment, participants had to choose between two ski trips that had both been accidentally booked for the same dates: one costing $100 in Michigan, and another, more enjoyable one, later purchased for $50 in Wisconsin. Both reservations were non-refundable. Rationally, they should have chosen the more pleasant trip, since the total cost was the same, but about half decided to stick with the more expensive one — simply because they had invested more money in it. That sunk cost held them captive. In their second, real-world study, Arkes and Blumer sold season theater tickets at three different prices: full price, a $2 discount, and a $7 discount. During the first half of the season, people who paid full price attended significantly more plays. The higher their initial payment, the stronger their urge to “get their money’s worth.” In other words, past spending distorted future behavior. This same bias appears in negotiations: once people have invested time, money, or reputation, they cling to a deal even when it’s no longer good for them. The real skill is learning to cut your losses — to decide based on the future, not the past.
Hal R. Arkes et Catherine Blumer, « The Psychology of Sunk Cost », Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1985, Vol. 35, 124-140.