Скачать или смотреть Why Tesla competition ain’t coming

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They keep saying it is, but it just ain’t so. The competition is NOT coming.

We’ve heard this claim for ages. The competition is coming. Surely the upstart Tesla can’t compete with the old guard, once they put their minds to it, right?

Back in 2012 we saw an assortment of claims that the legacy guys would have a Tesla Killer within two years that would have more range, better performance, and the kind of better build quality you can expect from the likes of Audi,Volvo, and if you’re really up for a laugh, Ford, Lincoln, and Chrysler.

I’ve owned a Ford, and it was great, but it was a pickup from the 70s. I reviewed cars for a time, and they weren’t exactly up to par. And speaking of MoPar, I had a ‘99 Viper, and it was the most gorgeous, amazing pile of trash you could ever buy at the time. Gorgeous junk and little more.

I see the problem with the myth of “the competition is coming” as a deeply entrenched issue. It’s their way of doing business. In the 60s and 70s, imported cars were considered a joke. Sure the VW Bug is cheap, but it's a go-kart, right? Toyota and Honda weren't making serious products, but low cost trash, right? Except that they all gained market share rapidly.

Instead of using the entirety of the 60s and 70s to expand their lead, the Big 3 in Detroit lobbied to increase import taxes to maintain their competitive advantage. It worked, for a while.

But by the early 80s, there was a serious problem. Toyota and Honda weren't a joke anymore. They were making very good products with very attractive features that were still cheaper than anything in the US, even with the import taxes. Then they set about to build factories in the US to drop their prices further.

By the late 80s we had the Camry and Accord, which were damn fine cars, up against, what? The Buick Skylark? The Ford Tempo?

Imagine having a twenty year advantage and just... blowing it.

Well, stop imagining because the Chevy EV1 was a beloved beast, despite its lackluster specs, and it hit the market ages before the competition. That should have been the start of the EV revolution. It wasn't great, but the tech to make it viable was just around the corner. Just keeping it in production and development for a few more years would have been all she wrote.

The EV1 was produced in '96 and '97 and lithium batteries were commercialized in 1991. All the puzzle pieces were there, they just chose not to put them together. Nothing but wasted opportunities.

And building batteries is nothing like building engines or frames or any component made from metal or glass. Metal and glass are abundant across the supply chain, as are the machines to turn them into parts.

If a car could run on spun cotton, no problem, we got a lot of cotton. If it runs on a saffron lattice assembled in a clean room? Well, we're gonna need a generation or two to get that supply chain to mature, which is where we're at with batteries.

It was equally true in 2012, but it’s more apparent today. The competition is NOT coming because they are years behind in battery electric car technology, as evidenced by their poor miles per KwH ratings, and another handful of years behind that in terms of setting up their battery supply chains.

The biggest problem they face is that their ICE cars are their most profitable, while their EV offerings are often loss leaders. The more EVs they sell, the more money they lose, and they have no clear path or even intention of switching their entire fleets to electric.
#Tesla #FordMachE #eHummer