Скачать или смотреть INDIAN ECONOMY AND ECONOMICS OF POTENTIAL FALL IN GDP

THIS VIDEO EXPLAINS THE STATE OF INDIAN ECONOMY AND ECONOMICS OF GDP FALL. GDP PREDICTION BY MOODY’S, S&P, IMF AT VARIOUS POINTS IN TIME DURING THE LAST FEW MONTHS ESTIMATE GDP FALLING FROM NIL TO -10%.

IN THIS VIDEO YOU WOULD LEARN THE ECONOMICS OF WORKING OUT THE GDP FALL ESTIMATES FOR INDIAN ECONOMY IN CORONAVIRUS PERIOD.

FOR THIS WE WILL REFER TO THE GDP INCOME APPROACH FORMULA – REFER TO MY VIDEO ON “ UNDERSTANDING INDIAN ECONOMY”
GDP = WAGES+ RENT + INTEREST + PROFIT + TAXES + DEPRECIATION
LETS FIRST UNDERSTAND THE INCOME BASE FOR 2019-20 FOR VARIOUS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION – WAGES, RENT, INTEREST, PROFIT AND OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ( INDIRECT TAX AND DEPRECIATION)
THE ECONOMICS IS SIMPLIFIED APPROXIMATION BASIS REALISTIC ASSUMPTIONS ( AS PER THE PUBLISHED ESTIMATES)
THREE SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED BASIS THE DEGREE OF CONTRACTION IN INCOME LEVELS FOR VARIOUS COMPONENTS
WORST TO BEST SCENARIOS REFER TO HIGH TO LOW CONTRACTION IN INCOME.
THIS HAS BEEN MODELLED CONSIDERING THE CURRENT INDIAN ECONOMIC SITUATION

OVERLAYING THE 2019-20 BASE INCOME ESTIMATES FOR 3 SCENARIOS, WE GET THE PROJECTED GDP FOR 2020-21 FOR THE 3 SCENARIOS
IN THE BASE CASE GDP COULD CONTRACT BY RS 50 L CR
AND IN THE WORST CASE ONE COULD EXPERIENCE GDP CONTRACTION OF 33% (RS 67 L CR)
BEST CASE THE CONTRACTION COULD STILL BE 18% (RS 37 L CR)
THE WORKINGS DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR ANY GOVT INTERVENTION BY WAY OF INCREASE IN SPENDING.
GOVT UNDERSTANDS THE GRAVITY OF THE SITUATION AND THAT IS THE REASON IT HAS JACKED UP ITS FISCAL DEFICIT ESTIMATES FOR 2020-21

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