Mark My Words! The Unthinkable Will Happen And It Will Change Everything - Rafi Farber
Rafi Farber, founder of End Game Investor, is a seasoned analyst with renowned insights into economic trends. Farber anticipates a financial crisis in early 2024 as the printed dollars from 2020 are exhausted, marking the start of the dollar's decline. Converting cash into physical gold and silver will be the most effective hedge against hyperinflation. The Central Banks will be powerless in their effort to control precious metals prices.
The purchasing power of the US dollar has fallen dramatically over the last 110 years thanks to inflation and a sharp increase in the country's money supply, which grew by 3.8 trillion dollars in 2020 alone.
Farber highlights a record 4.5 million ounces of gold drawn from the LBMA and diminishing silver reserves, raising concerns about potential scarcity. As this happens, we see record monthly physical gold drains from the LBMA, and physical silver stocks in London are back down just above all-time lows.
Meanwhile, Farber sees a stable historical gold-to-silver ratio (14:1) during the 1922-1923 hyperinflation, hinting at a possible repeat if gold substitutes are dead. Silver has underperformed gold in the past few months. The gold/silver ratio jumped to $88, the highest point since March 2023. It has jumped by over 15% from the lowest point this year. In most cases, if the gold/silver ratio is high, it means that it is right to buy silver.
Farber references a historical chart comparing Dow, gold, and gold stocks, emphasizing that mining stocks surged following the mainstream market's downturn. The gold miners’ stocks are lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind. Their striking performance gap is undermining gold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector. While definitely vexing, this anomaly has only arisen over the past couple weeks. Gold stocks' precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon, with miners surging fast to catch up with their metal.
Farber warns that rising interest rates make reverse repos crucial for treasury auctions, but they may run out by February 2024, triggering a financial crisis. The reverse repo facility has come to be seen by many market participants and some in the central bank as a proxy for excess liquidity in the financial system. Inflows into the facility expanded rapidly when the Fed was aggressively buying bonds to provide stimulus during the depths of the coronavirus pandemic and its immediate aftermath, taking reverse repos sharply higher from nearly zero inflows in the spring of 2021.
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