Market Update & Volatility: This week, the Indian stock market closed below 25,000, with the Nifty falling by 213 points to close at 24,870. The market experienced significant volatility driven by various news flows, including updates on Trump tariffs, ongoing talks between India and Russia, and announcements regarding GST reductions. Most sectors saw negative performance, with Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare being the only positive segments. Major stocks like HDFC Bank and Reliance, along with the IT sector, significantly dragged the Nifty down.
Global Economic Landscape:
• US Tariff Tensions: The US-side tariff tensions persist. However, India is actively working to mitigate their impact by strengthening ties with Russia and China, and exploring free trade agreements with other nations. This strategy aims to redirect exports affected by US policies to other countries, helping to reduce the economic strain.
• US Inflation Concerns: The US economy is also showing signs of stress. Recent wholesale inflation data indicated a 1% increase, suggesting that future US inflation numbers might also rise. The global market is keenly awaiting the Federal Chairman's commentary tonight for insights into the US economic activity. It is anticipated that any structural problems caused by tariffs will initially manifest in the US, potentially leading to a slowdown in their GDP.
Indian Economic Challenges & GST Reductions:
• Boost Consumption: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of GST reductions is a key development. This decision appears to be a direct response to the government's earlier expectations of consumption growth, which did not materialize despite measures like interest rate cuts, CRR cuts, and income tax reductions. The aim is to lower costs for consumers, thereby boosting purchasing power and private capital expenditure, to prevent future economic issues.
• Structural Problem Indication: The sudden move to cut GST, coming from a government that typically sought to increase taxes, raises questions about a potential structural problem within the Indian economy, although it could be temporary. While the GST cuts are beneficial—potentially leading to product discounts of up to 10% and improving buying power and company performance—they hint at deeper economic challenges.
Market Outlook & Predictions:
• Resistance and Support: The market faces strong resistance around 25,000 for the upcoming week's expiry. Technical analysis and buyer sentiment suggest that 24,000 will act as a crucial support level.
• Consolidation Expected: Overall market data, including open interest and technical charts, indicates that the market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, potentially extending further. This consolidation is anticipated to occur roughly between 25,000 and 24,400.
• FII Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue their selling streak, with approximately 1.68 lakh short positions still active.
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Indian Stock Markets Crash | GST Cuts, Trump Tariffs | Monday Market Prediction | Revanth Chalamala
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