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New World Order: Rise Of Multipolar World Signals End of U.S. Dominance
Are we in a pre-war period or will we settle into a path of economic development, geopolitical expert Andrew Staples posits.
by Pamela Roberts, National Press Foundation

While there are signs of optimism in global trade – such as the support behind the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) that the UK just voted to join – there’s also a great deal of uncertainty, said GeoPol Asia founder Andrew Staples.

“We are looking at the emergence, the birthing, of a new world order. The old one hasn’t fallen apart quite yet, but it’s looking a bit rocky,” he told the National Press Foundation’s International Trade Reporting Fellowship.

Staples sees a range of possibilities, “from global war to settling down and getting on a path to economic development … and everything in between. But the crucial thing is we are moving into a new environment where previous assumptions, norms and values are changing and reshaping our global political economy.”

How Did We Get Here
By the 1990s, after the evolution from World War II through the Cold War to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world faced competing economic models: the Western market democracies and liberalism versus state-directed economies exemplified by the Soviet Union. The West won.

“You get this idea that we’ve come to the end of history,” Staples said. “Everybody else wants to become an open market liberal economy. Free trade – you make this thing, we trade it, we ship it around the world – makes sense, everybody benefits.”

Trade dramatically increased and the world as a whole became more prosperous, especially Asia. If a country wanted to trade in this system, it needed to open its economy and let foreign firms come in. Countries became more interlinked and created the rationale for global supply chains. It was a period of a U.S.-led global order and the rise of globalization.

“We have countries around the world sitting down together hammering out the next deal, how they’re going to reduce barriers to trade, increase access to their markets. Everything focused on this multilateral approach. We all come together, we all join a club, we all agree together to lower our barriers, we all benefit from that.”

Another key byproduct? Relative peace.

“We’ve had world wars, we’ve had the Cold War, we’re into this period now, where would we go to war? We’re all trading and invested in each other. So, peace actually comes from economic interdependence.”

With the 2008 global financial crisis, the system began to crumble, marking the start of a new world order. Inequality, climate change, populism and discontent with global economic systems played a part.

With the rise of the global south BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economies, non-G7 countries were more economically and demographically important.

“The question here,” Staples says, “is who gets to set the rules – how we trade, how money is moved around, the regulatory regime, how your data governed and digital. Who has power to influence?”

Nationalist backlash began to rise.

“If I’m a nationalist leader, I can pick up the playbook and say, ‘oh yes, it’s not your fault, it’s somebody else’s fault. Vote for me, give me power and everything will be fine. I’ll put tariffs over here. I’ll kick the foreigners act of our country.’ There’s a harder, nasty edge to some of this nationalism that we’ve seen around the world.”

Now the cadence of activities in the second Trump presidency is “unrelenting,” he said. There is a retreat of democracy and erosion of rules and norms in the U.S. and around the world.

Speaker: Andrew Staples, Founder GeoPol Asia; Former Global Editorial Director, The Economist
Corporate Network

Summary, transcript and resources: https://nationalpress.org/topic/trade...

This fellowship is part of an ongoing program of trade training and awards sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation. The National Press Foundation is solely responsible for the content.

This video was produced within the Evelyn Y. Davis studios.