The Riddle Of 2019 Elections

2018 is the year of elections - eight states go to polls this year. However, 2018 is also the penultimate year before the mega Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Analysis emerging for the first time - both partisan and non-partisan - raising questions over whether Narendra Modi will indeed return as Prime Minister in the next national elections, questions that may have seemed unthinkable even as recently as six months ago. The buzz centres around a handful of analysis and think pieces the first of which is by Praveen Chakravarthy, who has joined the Congress recently as a data analyst who called 2014 a Black Swan - or a one off - election. Adding to that are the results of the recent CSDS/Lokniti/ABP Mood of the Nation Poll, where Rahul Gandhi's popularity has risen significantly. Then there are analysis by Rajesh Jain, a former strategist who worked with Mr Modi on the 2014 campaign, who oultlines four possible scenarios in 2019, one of which does allows for Mr Modi's return as PM. On Reality Check, we discuss the Riddle of 2019 and the biggest question - will Narendra Modi will be a one-term PM?

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