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Today's guest has been a relatively recent entrant into the world of macroeconomic analysis, but he has certainly made a big splash within a short period of time.
Chris Irons is the author and publisher of Quoth The Raven, which has become one of most popular financial newsletters around, currently sitting at #25 in the list of top financial Substacks worldwide.
Chris's take, while unconventional and unapologetic, often puts its finger right on the heart of issues. He has a talent for declaratively stating in simple words exactly what the rest of us are all thinking, but haven't succinctly voiced yet.
So, what's his view of the economy and markets right now?
Let's ask the man himself.
#recession #inflation #marketcorrection
0:00 - Chris’s assessment: Unprecedented market distortions, driven by passive bid, options gamma, liquidity
5:20 - Passive investing (50% market share) and options drive market, not fundamentals
7:29 - Speculative fervor: Young investors, gamification, and Wall Street Bets fuel call option buying
10:13 - Markets pornographically overvalued, investor psychosis persists, reality looms
12:07 - Jobs report signals cracks, passive bid at risk if redemptions force selling
15:29 - Economy grinding to halt, credit card/auto loan delinquencies rising, housing teetering
18:19 - Collision of overvalued market with slowing economy, potential violent repricing
21:07 - Bond market risks cracking, Fed may resort to QE or yield curve control
24:12 - Loss of confidence in Fed growing, amplified by public awareness via Bitcoin, memes
26:59 - Public understands monetary policy flaws, sees Ponzi scheme, exit ramps like gold/Bitcoin
29:24 - Economy as distorted Jenga tower, nearing collapse from debt, policy tweaks
32:11 - Commercial real estate teetering, regional banks exposed to unmarked losses
36:29 - Psychological fragility: Market crash could break investors coddled by policy, media
41:22 - Positive real rates erode economic cushion, increasing risk of domino effect
43:39 - Jobs report as clarion call: Signals slowdown, triggers psychological recession fears
46:06 - Passive bid tied to jobs, redemptions could reverse market momentum
48:45 - Student loan repayments spike delinquencies, curbing consumer spending
51:38 - Student loan crisis as kerosene on economic tinderbox, accelerating slowdown
58:55 - Bill Fleckenstein’s influence: Fundamentals don’t matter until passive flows break
1:01:08 - Psychological shift: Investors ignore valuations now, will panic when flows reverse
1:07:44 - AI as speculative bubble, potential trigger if Nvidia or Mag 7 falters
1:13:23 - AI overhyped, unlikely to deliver productivity to justify valuations
1:24:12 - John’s takeaways: Markets at historic highs, valuations matter long-term
1:27:08 - Fed’s rescues perpetuate bubbles, job market softness signals rate cuts
1:29:29 - Massive jobs revision (1M fewer) ignored by Teflon market, AI bubble concerns
1:31:36 - Oracle’s 40% surge, crypto treasury stock up 2,000%, signs of mania
1:34:20 - New Harbor’s strategy: Maintain tech exposure, monitor breadth erosion
1:39:00 - S&P 500 breadth weakening, early signs of momentum wane
1:41:03 - Gold’s epic run to $3,700, New Harbor trims miners, hedges with calls
1:45:34 - Gold breakout healthy but overextended, pullback likely, long-term bullish
1:48:20 - Energy sector undervalued, showing early breakout signs, on watchlist
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