India’s complex energy equation with Russia has entered a new phase. Preliminary data from Kpler and OilX shows that India’s crude oil imports from Russia rose slightly in October 2025, touching nearly 1.48 million barrels per day, despite sustained pressure from Washington to cut purchases. But trade and refining sources warn that this may be the last month of high imports. By December 2025, India’s Russian crude intake is expected to fall to its lowest level in nearly three years as refiners scramble to avoid breaching expanding Western sanctions.
The roots of this dependency go back to February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and the West responded with sweeping sanctions. As Europe attempted to cut Russian energy completely, Putin redirected oil flows to friendly markets. India, driven by economic pragmatism, bought discounted Russian crude at record levels—more in two months than it had purchased in all of 2021. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar repeatedly defended India’s position, famously stating that Europe “buys more oil in an afternoon than India does in a month.”
This energy partnership deepened rapidly: India bought $25.5 billion worth of Russian crude in 2022, rising to $48.6 billion in 2023 and $52.7 billion in 2024. But the geopolitical landscape shifted sharply in 2025. With Donald Trump returning to the White House, Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for continuing Russian oil imports, putting New Delhi in a tight spot.
As pressure mounts, both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin are expected to work closely to stabilise oil flows and soften the economic blow. The coming months will determine whether India can strike a balance between affordable energy, strategic autonomy, and intensifying US sanctions.
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