#WestAsia , or what some call the Middle East, is in flux. What started as a direct military confrontation between #Israel and #Hamas has now snowballed into a regional security crisis.
#Hezbollah , Kataib Hezbollah, Hashad al-Shabi, Houthis, #Iran , #Pakistan , the United States and the United Kingdom are all now part of an expanding vortex.
As Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed more than 25,000 people in just over 100 days, is continuing with no foreseeable end, the related security crisis in the region is deepening as well as widening
Just three months ago, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said ‘the Middle East today is quieter than it was 20 years ago’. But today, it’s falling into anarchy.
How did we reach here? When Israel launched its war on Gaza, after Hamas’s October 7 cross-border attack, there were fears that the conflict could spill over beyond Palestine. Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group that’s backed by Iran, fired rockets at Israeli forces, in solidarity with the Palestinians. Ever since, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire many times. While Arab countries, upset with Israel’s indiscriminate bombing, stuck to the path of diplomacy to turn up pressure on the Jewish state, Iran-backed militias elsewhere opened new fronts.
Houthis, the Shia militias of Yemen, started attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea from mid-November, again in “solidarity with the Palestinians”. Houthis, who control much of Yemen, including its Red Sea coast, has used sea denial tactics to target dozens of ships ever since, forcing several shipping giants to suspend operations in the Red Sea.
When Houthi attacks imperilled the Red Sea traffic, the U.S., which continues to support Israel’s war on Gaza, started carrying out airstrikes in Yemen, targeting Houthi positions. Hashad al-Shabi, the Shia Mobilisation Forces of Iraq and Syria, who are also backed by Iran, launched more than 100 attacks against U.S. troops deployed in the two countries. In retaliation, the U.S. carried out attacks in Syria, and killed a commander of Hashad al-Shabi in a hit in Baghdad.
Israel has also carried out multiple strikes inside Syria and Lebanon, killing Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian commanders. As instability spread, the Islamic State terror group attacked a memorial event for Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general assassinated by the U.S. in January 2020, in Kerman, southeastern Iran. As it was coming under growing regional and domestic pressure, Iran carried out strikes on January 16, in Iraq’s Kurdistan, Syria and Pakistan, claiming to have hit a Mossad operational centre and Sunni Islamist militants.
You can see that there are multiple players in this crisis. But if you take a closer look, there are three major operational centres. Who are they? Of course, Israel; Iran and the United States. Israel is the main driver of this conflict, given its lasting war on Gaza. It faced military resistance from non-state actors. And if you look at the non-state actors, be it Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis or the Shia militias of Iraq and Syria, what’s the common factor? Iran backs them all.
And the U.S., which has a widespread military presence in the region, has three objectives — to ensure the security of Israel, the security of America’s troops and assets deployed in the region and the perseverance of the U.S.-led order in West Asia.
Now, take a wider look.
This is an unstable situation. West Asia has seen conflicts in the past, between nation states (For ex, the Iran-Iraq war; or the wars between Israel and Arab nations) and states and non-state actors (Israel’s wars with Hezbollah and Hamas). But currently, the region is witnessing a widespread security crisis, involving both powerful states and non-state actors
00:00 - 00:13 - Intro
00:14 - 00:50 - The expanding vortex
00:51 - 03:22 - How did Middle East fall into anarchy?
03:23 - 04:22 - Three major operational centres
04:23 - 06:22 - What makes this West Asia conflict different?
06:23 - 07:39 - What next?
07:40 - 07:55 - Outro
Script and presentation: Stanly Johny
Video: Renil Varghese
Production: Shibu Narayan
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