Each week, scheduled macroeconomic information is released by various government and non-governmental organisations.
While some economic indicators barely move markets and are largely ignored, there are those that make the financial world tune in and pay attention.
How macroeconomic statistics are formulated varies. For example, some base releases on public surveys while others draw on data from regional offices.
It’s also important to recognise that indicators are arranged in three categories: leading, lagging and coincident.
• Think of leading indicators almost as a ‘heads up’ for economists, investors and traders. These often change prior to large economic moves and are, therefore, used to forecast future trends.
• Lagging indicators display the economy’s historical performance, and can only be known after the event. These types of indicators are used to confirm long-term trends.
• Coincident indicators are metrics in place to show the current state of the economic picture. Think of these as a snapshot of economic performance, an indicator that changes, more or less, in line with general economic conditions.
Among the most influential macroeconomic indicators—those that often cause fluctuations in the FX market—are:
• Gross Domestic Product, or commonly referred to as GDP.
• Employment—think US non-farm payrolls.
• Consumer prices, namely Inflation.
So, for GDP, if we add the value of a country’s goods and services, we get GDP. In very simple terms, GDP provides a healthy indication of how much an economy produces each year.
GDP, if you think about it, is all around us. Cars, motorbikes, clothes and even services such as health—think doctors and nurses.
In the US, GDP data are organised in three versions, released a month apart in the form of Advance, Preliminary, and Final reports. The Advance release, being the earliest of the three, tends to have the most influence on price movement.
Employment, particularly in the US, is another big one.
Due to its timeliness, accuracy and importance within the broader economy, the employment situation report out of the US—often referred to as the non-farm payrolls release—is a closely monitored indicator.
As well as a leading indicator of consumer spending, non-farm payrolls represent a measure of new payrolls added by private and government organisations across the US, reported each month by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, or BLS.
The NFP report is released on the first Friday of every month at approximately 8:30am Eastern Time.
Traders are urged to note this release can generate notable price movement in the currency markets.
And finally, over to inflation—this refers to the rate at which prices for goods and services increase.
The CPI indicator is a popular way of measuring inflation and is expressed as a percentage.
CPI data are critical in the currency markets because inflation impacts monetary policy decisions made by central banks. Monetary policy involves using interest rates and other monetary tools to influence economic activity.
CPI data are typically released around the 15th in the month and represents figures for the previous month.
Another inflation measure to take into account is the producer price index, or PPI, which tracks changes in selling prices received by domestic producers. Data are released on a monthly basis during the second full week of the current month, for the previous month.
For up-to-date access to important global economic news, consider visiting FP Market’s Trader’s Hub to view our dedicated economic calendar.
Aaron Hill was introduced to financial trading, specifically foreign exchange, over a decade ago. Since then, Aaron caught the trading bug and has amassed substantial knowledge, obtaining CMT (Chartered Market Technician) levels 1 & 2. He has since been awarded the CFTe (Certified Financial Technician) and member of the CMT Association!
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