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The Senior Citizens League has used December’s inflation numbers to generate its first Social Security cost-of-living adjustment estimate for 2026, projecting a 2.1% increase in benefits.

The actual 2026 COLA won’t be known until October, when the Social Security Administration will use the average rate of inflation during the third quarter to compare how prices have changed compared with the third quarter of 2024. For 2025, the COLA was set at 2.5%.

As noted by the Senior Citizens League, inflation came in at 2.8% in December 2024, representing a continued (if very slight) cooling over the course of the last year. However, inflation is down much more meaningfully compared with the highs seen in 2022, which resulted in a near-record 8.7% COLA in 2023 and an above-average COLA of 3.2% in 2024.

The average COLA over the past 20 years was 2.6%, according to the League, and the last time the COLA came in below 2% was 2021, when it was 1.3%.

“If SSA announced the 2026 COLA today, using data from October to December instead of July to September, it would come in at 2.6%,” the League’s analysis suggests.