Putin removes Shoigu from Defence Minister position to support protracted war in Ukraine – ISW

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is making replacements, including in the Russian Defence Ministry, to step up preparations for a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly preparing for a future confrontation with NATO.
Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as the Russian Defence Minister on 12 May, transferring Shoigu to the position of Secretary of Russia’s Security Council to replace Nikolai Patrushev.
ISW believes that these high-level reshuffles following the presidential elections in Russia convincingly indicate that Putin is taking significant steps toward mobilising the Russian economy and defence-industrial base to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for future confrontation with NATO.
ISW added that Belousov's nearly decade-long tenure as an economy minister in the Russian government and his recent involvement in managing various innovative domestic defence industry and drone projects has prepared him well to lead the Russian Defence Ministry apparatus, which is currently in a challenging position.
"Belousov has a stronger reputation for being an effective technocrat, and insider sources have claimed that he has a positive relationship with Putin," the report stated.
ISW added that replacing Shoigu with Patrushev as the Secretary of the Security Council aligns with Putin's overall policy of quietly displacing high-ranking security officials by giving them peripheral roles in the Russian security sphere instead of simply dismissing them.
ISW noted that previously Putin similarly sidelined his underperforming generals by appointing them to peripheral security and defence-related positions outside the direct chain of command, sometimes allowing them to "redeem themselves and return to Putin’s favour".
In addition to Patrushev's dismissal, Putin mostly reshuffled the heads of the major Russian security services, indicating that he retains a core of loyal security officials.

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