Скачать или смотреть Early Morning Thunderstorm Herne Bay, Kent - 26th June 2020

Early Morning Thunderstorm Herne Bay, Kent - 26th June 2020

Good Lightning Shots:
03:22
04:56 (thumbnail)
06:39
09:05
20:11
22:07
24:06

Forecast from Convective Weather:
... ENGLAND / WALES ...

Much of Thursday daytime will be dominated by capping, although there may be some elevated convection (and possible shower/thunderstorm activity) close to the Isles of Scilly and W Cornwall - but low confidence in this scenario. During the evening hours an isolated severe thunderstorm could develop in W / NW Wales where upslope flow and low-level convergence may aid in initiation - this perhaps most likely near Anglesey and then drifting offshore towards the Isle of Man. If convection can initiate here, large hail 2-3cm in diameter may be possible, and as such a SVR has been included.

Also during the evening hours elevated showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin to develop near Scilly / Cornwall / Devon, and this will then mark the beginning of several clusters that may develop through the evening and night as subtle impulses aloft engage with the instability axis, individual clusters migrating northwards while the plume migrates eastwards through the night - and hence the risk will expand erratically northwards and eastwards during the night. The exact coverage of elevated thunderstorms is uncertain, especially with eastward extent, however the steep mid-level lapse rates and substantial CAPE reservoir suggests that where they do occur lightning could be prolific, especially with any storms over the English Channel and adjacent coastal counties. A MDT has been introduced where the best multi-model consensus exists, but thunderstorms (with very frequent lightning) are still possible outside of this region.

GFS Synoptic analysis shows a low around 1005mb off to the W of Ireland pushing the warm continental air N into the UK with 16c 850hPa temps nudging into Kent & the hottest day of the year so far just the day prior with 33.4c. As the low moved east, it made for plenty of moisture & instability allowing this storm to spark off & move NNE.

Twitter:
@KentHC_WX