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🎆 DAY 1 POST — NEW YEAR’S EVE (Dec 31)

📍 Day 1 Convective Outlook | New Year’s Eve Weather

As we close out 2025, most of the country is staying quiet on the severe side.

🔹 SPC Day 1 Outlook:
➡️ NO severe thunderstorm areas forecast

🔹 What is happening:
• A weak upper-level system approaches Southern California late tonight
• A few isolated thunderstorms possible along the coast after midnight
• Storms will be elevated, meaning:
– Minimal instability
– Weak wind shear
– Low to near-zero severe risk

🔹 Other notable weather:
• Cold air remains locked in across the Great Lakes & Northeast
• Light snow possible in far northern regions
• High pressure dominates much of the central & southern U.S.

🎇 Bottom line for New Year’s Eve:
No widespread severe weather concerns. Southern California may hear a rumble of thunder overnight, but this is not a chase setup.

Stay weather-aware, stay safe, and enjoy ringing in the New Year 🎆

🎆 DAY 2 POST — NEW YEAR’S DAY (Jan 1)

📍 Day 2 Convective Outlook | New Year’s Day Weather

New Year’s Day brings a small but notable change for coastal Southern California.

⚠️ SPC Day 2 Outlook:
➡️ MARGINAL RISK (Level 1 of 5)
➡️ Coastal Southern California

🔹 Primary threats:
• Locally damaging wind gusts
• Brief tornado possible, mainly near the coast
• Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Thursday morning

🔹 Why the concern:
• Compact shortwave trough moving inland
• Surface-based storms near low-60s dew points
• Strong mid-level winds (40–50 kt at 700 mb)
• Some guidance hints at at least one rotating cell, especially near the LA Basin

🔹 Elsewhere:
• Thunderstorms possible farther inland into AZ, but:
– Mostly low-topped
– Limited instability
– Severe risk remains very low

🎆 Bottom line for New Year’s Day:
This is a low-confidence, low-end severe setup, but it only takes one storm to cause issues. Coastal Southern California should stay alert during the morning hours.

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