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China's Housing Bubble: The $60 Trillion Time Bomb
China's real estate market is worth approximately $60 trillion—more than the combined value of all property in the United States and Europe. It represents roughly 70% of Chinese household wealth. And it is built on a foundation that is now cracking.
For three decades, China's economic miracle depended on a simple formula: build apartments, sell them before completion using presales, use that revenue to build more apartments. Local governments funded infrastructure through land sales. Developers borrowed against future projects. Families invested their life savings in concrete, betting prices would never fall.
The system worked as long as confidence held. That confidence is breaking.
This video examines how China built the world's largest housing bubble, why it is now deflating rather than popping, and what the consequences mean for China and the global economy.
We cover:

How housing became China's primary wealth store after 1998 privatization
The debt structure underneath: developers, local governments, households, and shadow banking
The "Three Red Lines" policy that triggered Evergrande's collapse in 2021
Why prices are falling in 70+ cities and transaction volumes have collapsed
The presale crisis: millions paid for apartments that may never be completed
Why demographics, falling land sales, and destroyed confidence make recovery nearly impossible
Global consequences: commodity markets, growth slowdown, and geopolitical implications

This is not a prediction of sudden collapse. It is an analysis of a slow deflation that threatens the engine of China's growth, the savings of hundreds of millions of families, and the stability of global markets that have depended on Chinese demand for decades.
China's housing market was built on the assumption that prices would always rise. That assumption has failed. And because housing is so central to China's economy—accounting for 25-30% of GDP—the unwinding cannot happen without profound consequences.
All sources and references are linked below.
Timestamps:
0:00 – Cold Open: The $60 Trillion Time Bomb
1:00 – Chapter 1: How China Became Addicted to Real Estate
3:30 – Chapter 2: The Debt Underneath
5:30 – Chapter 3: The Three Red Lines & Evergrande's Collapse
7:30 – Chapter 4: The Slow Deflation
9:30 – Chapter 5: Why the Government Can't Just Fix It
11:00 – Chapter 6: Global Consequences
12:30 – Conclusion

SOURCES & FURTHER READING
Primary Data & Government Sources:

National Bureau of Statistics of China, "Real Estate Investment and Sales Data" (monthly releases)
People's Bank of China, "China Financial Stability Report" (annual)
Ministry of Finance of China, "Local Government Finance Data"
Bank for International Settlements, "Credit to the Non-Financial Sector" (China data)
China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, reports and statistic

International Institutions:

International Monetary Fund, "People's Republic of China: Staff Report for the 2023 Article IV Consultation"
World Bank, "China Economic Update" (semi-annual reports)
Peterson Institute for International Economics, "China's Local Government Debt Problem"
Financial Stability Board, "Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report"

Books:

Walter, Carl E., and Fraser J.T. Howie. Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise. Wiley, 2011.
Kroeber, Arthur R. China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University Press, 2020.


Academic & Research Papers:

Rogoff, Kenneth, and Yuanchen Yang. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?" China & World Economy 29, no. 1 (2021): 1-31.
Chen, Kaiji, and Yi Wen. "The Great Housing Boom of China." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 2 (2017): 73-114.
Fang, Hanming, et al. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 30, no. 1 (2016): 105-166.

Financial Analysis & Journalism:

"China Evergrande: How a Property Giant Failed," Financial Times
"China's Property Crisis: A Slow-Motion Train Wreck," The Economist
"Inside China's Ghost Cities," Bloomberg
"The End of China's Property Boom," Wall Street Journal
"China's Mortgage Boycott Threatens Banking System," Reuters

Commodity & Global Impact:

World Steel Association, "Steel Statistical Yearbook" (annual)
International Energy Agency, "China's Role in Global Commodity Markets"
"How China's Property Slowdown Affects the World," Financial Times

Developer Defaults & Restructuring:

Evergrande restructuring filings and offshore bondholder reports
Country Garden financial disclosures and default announcements
Rating agency reports from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch on Chinese property sector

Demographic Data:

United Nations, "World Population Prospects: China"
National Bureau of Statistics of China, population and fertility data
"China's Demographic Crisis," Brookings Institution

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