PANEL: DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY | Miriam Cates, Philip Pilkington, Paul Morland and Eric Kaufman

Economic stagnation, mass migration, or have more children - this is the choice facing societies across the world.

Young people are choosing not to have children. They even feel this is a moral responsibility. This has become common across the developed world, and yet we fail to fully understand that demography is destiny. Our economic and social futures will be directly shaped by the health of our families and the decisions that young people make about having children.

In our latest ARC off-stage conversation Philip Pilkington, Paul Morland, Eric Kaufman and Miriam Cates break these themes down.

They explore Pilkington and Morland’s ground-breaking research which shows that countries which fail to reverse demographic collapse are left with the bleak choice of economic stagnation or unsustainable mass migration.

“In Western politics”, Miriam says, “demography is the elephant in the room… The Right want lower taxes, the Left want more spending, but the truth is that we can’t have lower taxes or more spending if we don’t have a workforce! … This has nothing to do with politics or ideology, these are just the facts.”

“The only path to a thriving society”, Pilkington and Morland write in their paper, “lies in being prepared to have significantly more children than people in the United Kingdom, and much of the rest of the world, have had for decades.”

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We hope you enjoy this conversation about one of the most important questions of our time.
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READ Philip Pilkington and Paul Morland’s paper that is discussed in this video - ‘Migration, Stagnation, or Procreation: Quantifying the Demographic Trilemma’ - https://www.arcforum.com/social-fabri...

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Miriam Cates MP is a Conservative Member of the UK Parliament who was elected as the MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge in 2019. Miriam campaigns on issues around children and families, with particular focus on safeguarding, issues of age-appropriate sex education and gender ideology in schools.

Dr Paul Morland is an author and broadcaster who writes and speaks about population and the big demographic trends across the world, both contemporary and historic. Paul has been an associate research fellow at Birkbeck, University of London and a senior member at St Antony's College, Oxford.

Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and financial analyst who has written for a variety of publications including The Telegraph, The Spectator, UnHerd, American Affairs, and First Things. He is also co-host of the popular “Multipolarity” podcast and author of The Reformation in Economics.

Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at the University of Buckingham, UK. He is author of 'The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Extremism' and 'Taboo: Why Making Race Sacred Led to a Cultural Revolution.

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00:00:00 - Introduction to Demographic Issues
00:03:20 - The Demographic Trilemma Explained
00:04:00 - Case Studies: Japan, UK, and Israel
00:07:10 - Analysing Future Scenarios: Economic Stagnation and Mass Migration
00:23:50 - Evaluating AI and Robotics in Addressing Labour Shortages
00:28:50 - Cultural and Psychological Impacts on Fertility Rates
00:31:30 - Pursuing Effective Strategies to Increase Fertility Rates
00:35:30 - Addressing the Root Causes of Fertility Decline and Reframing Policy Approaches