Скачать или смотреть Fed Decision Looms: Will Markets Spike or Correct? | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

In this weeks update for Elliott Wave traders i'm covering the following.: After an in-line CPI and a surprisingly soft PPI alongside weakening jobs data, equities have a bid into next week’s Fed—bonds are hinting at odds of a 50-bp cut, and if Powell delivers (and dangles another cut this year), the SPY can press beyond the 100% zigzag extension we just tagged and make a run toward ~675, with the VIX drifting toward 12 and a steady 45-degree “melt-up” led by QQQ while rate-sensitive small caps ride lower yields. That said, the zigzag met its mandate, so any Fed disappointment—or a “cut but no runway” message—could spark the wave-4 correction sooner. Dollar’s holding the Goldilocks channel (helpful for multinationals), metals have already broken out on the easing narrative, and crypto likely catches a tailwind if cuts materialize. Net-net: near-term bullish into the meeting with an ideal FOMO spike I’d love to fade for the wave-4 short—then we reassess!

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:: Sections in this Video ::
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0:00 – Welcome, featured tickers & in-session disclaimer
0:38 – Macro wrap: CPI, PPI, jobs softness keeps bid under equities
1:30 – SPY: AI 652 target hit; zigzag 100 percent reached at 660; what’s next
2:42 – Fed preview: 25 vs 50 bps; how a surprise could swing Wave 4
3:40 – Bonds: TLT triangle breakout; TNX near 4 percent across the curve
4:45 – Liquidity dashboard: easing and SPX alignment
5:20 – VIX: below 15 in descending triangle; 12.5 vs spike scenarios
6:05 – Dollar: still in Goldilocks channel, levels that matter
6:45 – GLD breakout to 330 then AI 337; consolidation; GDX, SIL notes
8:00 – SLV: 5-wave symmetry, TAP box & miners follow-through
8:45 – Crypto: BITB holds 60; zigzag framework above 70; ETHW triangle
9:50 – DIA, QQQ, IWM: Dow steady, QQQ 45 degree grind, small-caps rate-sensitive pop
11:05 – Energy: UNG oversold bounce idea; USO triangle & OPEC management
12:10 – ORCL guidance gap; read-through to MSFT basing breakout
13:10 – TSLA: 350 cleared; 400 magnet; overbought watch
13:55 – NVDA: below Wave 3 high; China-sales overhang
14:30 – AMZN: must clear 240 to target 250–260
15:00 – GOOGL: post-ruling surge, now backing and filling
15:30 – AAPL: zigzag to 61.8 percent; potential C-wave retrace
16:05 – NFLX: extended triangle, direction TBD
16:40 – Outro & TopShot mention

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I also take you through the bond market, where we’ve seen a decisive breakout from the consolidation triangles in TLT as rates across the curve press lower. The 10-year yield sliding back toward 4% signals the market is leaning toward a bigger cut, and I break down the scenarios: a 25-basis-point trim, a surprise 50, or the shock of no move at all.

From there we shift into currencies and commodities. The dollar is still holding in its “Goldilocks” channel, keeping pressure off multinational earnings while avoiding the kind of drop that stirs talk about reserve currency status. Metals have already answered the easing narrative, with gold breaking out of its triangle to hit AI-projected targets and silver following with a clean five-wave move. I walk through recent Top Shot alerts in miners like GDX and SIL that captured these vertical runs and why it

In conclusion, next week’s Fed decision is the catalyst—if Powell signals a true easing cycle, we likely see one last spike higher before the setup is ripe for a wave-four correction.