As of September 17, 2025, Deutsche Bank has confirmed that NIO has received approximately 100,000 cancellable pre-orders for the all-new third-generation ES8 SUV. This significant milestone reflects strong market interest and optimism around NIO's flagship model. Below is a detailed analysis of the pre-order situation, its implications, and key context:
📊 1. Pre-Order Details
Number of Pre-Orders: Deutsche Bank reported "about 100,000" cancellable pre-orders for the third-generation ES8, based on dealer checks.
Pre-Sale Period: Pre-orders began on August 21, 2025, with a refundable deposit of RMB 5,000 (approximately $690) required to secure a spot.
Pricing: The pre-sale price starts at RMB 416,800 (with a 100 kWh battery) or RMB 308,800 under NIO's Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) plan. Deutsche Bank expects the final price (to be announced on September 20, 2025, at NIO Day) to be RMB 7,000–17,000 lower than the pre-sale price.
📈 2. Market and Financial Impact
Stock Performance: NIO's stock (NYSE: NIO) surged 8.17% to $7.02 on September 16, 2025, marking a four-day consecutive rally and reaching a one-year high. Hong Kong-listed shares (HKG: 9866) also rose 7.74% to HK$55.00.
Analyst Upgrades: UBS upgraded NIO from "Neutral" to "Buy" with a price target of $8.50, citing the ES8's strong pre-order performance, the success of the Onvo L90 sub-brand, and an improved balance sheet following a $1 billion share offering.
Sales Context: Pre-orders for the ES8 surpassed those of the Onvo L90 (which had 30,000–35,000 pre-orders in its first four days) within the first 12 hours of launch, indicating robust demand.
🚗 3. Production and Delivery Plans
Production Capacity: NIO plans to ramp up production to 10,000 units per month by October 2025 and 15,000 units by December 2025.
Delivery Timeline: Deliveries are set to begin immediately after the official launch on September 20, 2025 (NIO Day in Hangzhou). NIO has already started shipping vehicles to stores nationwide to ensure rapid delivery.
Q4 2025 Target: NIO aims to deliver 150,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, averaging 50,000 monthly deliveries across its brands (NIO, Onvo, and Firefly).
💡 4. Context and Challenges
Cancellable Orders: The pre-orders are "non-firm" (refundable), meaning conversion to actual sales will depend on final pricing, test drives, and consumer confidence. Deutsche Bank noted a 10% week-on-week decline in nationwide weekly new orders (to ~8,300 units) in early September as buyers awaited final pricing.
Competitive Pricing: The ES8's pre-sale price is ~25% lower than the previous generation (100 kWh variant), making it competitive with rivals like the Tesla Model Y L and Aito M9.
Incentives: Pre-order customers benefit from a deposit discount (RMB 5,000 deducts RMB 10,000 from the purchase price), and existing NIO owners receive additional repurchase vouchers and bonus points.
📉 5. Analyst Expectations
Monthly Deliveries: Deutsche Bank estimates monthly deliveries of ~3,000 units for the ES8, though NIO's production ramp-up could exceed this if demand holds.
Conversion Risk: Morgan Stanley cautioned that while pre-order numbers are "robust," real demand depends on order conversion post-launch.
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