Climate Change vs. Climate Stability: Is the Earth Drunk? | Independent Climate Research 230923

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Are you concerned about climate change? Have you ever asked youself, or someone around you, how to judge a change is close to the change that could make the ocean boiling? Can the earth do something to diminish that as it has done for many troubles in since 4 billion BC? Then please watch this short talk.
#chaos #climatechange #Milankovitch #iceage #anomaly

The earth has been a unique member in the solar system for at least 4 billion years. It is reasonable to assume that its climate system must have been regulated by some powerful and intelligent mechanism with several standing points. Otherwise, the earth wouldn’t be capable of maintaining is biosphere long before humans appear.


It is essential to understand that such a natural climate stability is dynamic with certain range of variations, rather than static without any range of tolerance. So, whenever you find any anomaly, or some difference from a certain mean value, you can call it climate change, but it that change is relatively small and within the range of tolerance, then you can still conclude the climate system is stable and normal.

This way of thinking is much more important when the uncertainty in measuring such an anomaly is comparable to, or even larger than, the measured anomalies.

10.So far, it would appear nobody could measure a reliable global mean surface temperature because the surface area is huge, which implies, in my opinion, it is still too early to conclude the 1K increase in the surface temperature is reliable.

Now, let’s have some close look at how a long-term mean air temperature is measured step by step, starting with the diurnal variation in your backyard temperature if you wish.

Once you display the measured the instantaneous air temperature, you can see time-dependent random noises, or stochastic fluctuations. Why? Because the atmosphere is constantly adjusting its temperature distribution toward a thermal equilibrium one, determined by the periodic solar radiation.

Unfortunately, many people seem to have forgotten such endless efforts constantly made by the earth, toward a thermal equilibrium, because what they could easily see are complicated weather changes, or the weather noises as termed by Klaus Hasselmann, which appear random and purposeless activities.

14.Further, as I discussed in my previous talk, Hasselmann argued that the climate stability is merely determined by accumulation, or mathematical integral, of such weather noises. This idea is nonsense. How could the earth just acts as a drunk who can do ransom walks similar to the Brownian motion?

17.Notice the air temperature is always different from the surface temperature, except for at two time points about 8 am and 8 pm. But the air temperature is usually measured 2 m above the ground. If you try to measure air temperature very close to the surface, the air temperature would be fairly identical to the surface temperature, as shown in this observation.

18.By the way, the fact the the air temperature would be identical to the ocean surface temperature was mentioned by Frankignoul and Hasselmann in their paper published in 1977. As you can read:

20.Next, let’s expand the time scale from a few days to several years. The air temperature variation looks like a sine wave now. That’s way I used this sine function to approximate it, which can be extended to many years in the future if the mean value keeps as a constant.

23.So far, your observed periodic variations can be attributed to the spin of the earth and the its orbital motion around the sun. More complicated variations were first calculated by the happiest prisoner, Milankovitch, which provides some remarkable explanation for the onset and repetition of Ice Ages

24.During which the global mean surface temperature could be over 10K lower from that in inter-glacial periods. This could be described that the earth have more than one standing points, or attractors, as implied in the Lorenz differential equations. That’s why the earth have successfully adapted a number of ice ages so far.

25.Unfortunately, such a powerful and natural thermostat regulation capability of the earth has barely been discussed by many climate researchers. Perhaps, that is because they might have thought the climate system should be described either as static without any anomaly in the measured surface temperature, or merely driven by CO2 and other trace infrared absorbers to display increasing anomalies as long as the the CO2 concentration is over 300 ppm.

In summery, the basic issue in understanding the climate system of the earth is to investigate its natural capability to regulate its thermodynamic variables so that to adapt to different influences, including volcano and solar radiation, rather than to justify the incorrect greenhouse effect hypothesis.