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When everyone is dead, the Great Game is finished. Not before – Rudyard Kipling. The legendary British writer, author of “Mowgli” and classic works of colonial literature, also coined the term “The Great Game.” Political scientists now use this phrase to describe the rivalry between the British and Russian empires for dominance in Central Asia in the 19th century. However, judging by the news, the Great Game continues two centuries later. Only it has expanded, drawing a dozen countries into its orbit, and the stakes have risen – the game could become the trigger for a global nuclear war.
Two hundred years ago, the events of the Great Game unfolded like those in classic novels: London sought to protect the "jewel" of its crown, India, from Russia. Russia, meanwhile, advancing southward, expanded its influence to gain access to warmer seas and actively pushed back its long-standing and main geopolitical rival. The stumbling block—as it remains today—was Persia, which became Iran in the 20th century.
Today, history is repeating itself, except that Britain's place has been taken by the United States. And instead of soldiers in red uniforms, the heroes of newspaper photographs are now bomber pilots and aircraft carrier sailors. The United States no longer hides its intention to change the government in Iran, and, if the cards fall differently, simply assassinate the entire leadership of Russia's long-time and loyal ally. Iran is not only the last sovereign barrier standing in the US's way of Russia's southern border. If Tehran falls, American influence will be established throughout the Caspian Sea and move closer to Russia's North Caucasus.
Russia is also building the North-South transport corridor (Russia – Azerbaijan – Iran – Indian Ocean) to bypass the Turkish straits and sanctions. This route shortens the journey of a barrel of oil from St. Petersburg to Mumbai from the current 40 days via Suez to 15-20. However, US control over Iran would immediately cut off this artery. Third, a successful US strike on Iran would place vast gas and oil reserves under American control. This would deprive Russia of its leverage over the global energy market and create a direct competitor controlled by Washington—the same scenario currently unfolding with another of our ally, Venezuela.
Finally, even if the US simply destroys Iran's nuclear infrastructure or air defense systems, it would demonstrate that the Russian weapons with which Iran is literally stuffed are ineffective against American ones. Such "anti-PR" could cause serious reputational damage to Russia's arms exports
So it turns out that a potential strike on Iran is a proxy attack on Russia. The US goal is not simply to punish Tehran, but to dislodge a key pillar of Russian influence in the Middle East by taking control of energy flows and encircling Russia.
Alas, nothing new; all this happened two centuries ago. We just need to replace the US and NATO with the British Empire, the Russian Federation with the Russian Empire, and Iran with Persia
But there is also a significant difference between the first and second versions of the "Great Game." Today, in addition to the Russians and Anglo-Saxons, there is a third powerful player: China. Beijing sees Iran as a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative, where Tehran serves as a strategic hub for land corridors to Eurasia, providing access to energy resources bypassing American-controlled sea routes
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