Скачать или смотреть Liminal Conflict and Strategy with David Kilcullen | OODA Loop Deep Dive in Complexity

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Dr. David Kilcullen discusses the return of powerful state adversaries and non-state actors in liminal warfare and strategy, as well as the challenges faced by the US military and business leaders in adapting to complex adaptive systems. He emphasizes the importance of disruptive technologies and the need for organizations to learn from their adversaries.

Kilcullen also explores the differences in decision-making between terrorist organizations and large military organizations, highlighting the rapid evolution and adaptation of non-state actors. He discusses the impact of technology on military capabilities and the need for agile responses to emerging threats. Kilcullen concludes by addressing the decline of dissent and the importance of integrating different opinions in decision-making processes. The conversation covers various themes related to conflict, innovation, and adaptation. It explores the importance of integrating hostile opinions and listening to junior people in organizations. The concept of liminality is discussed, particularly in the context of warfare and consultancy. The conversation also delves into the process of framing problems and identifying solutions, as well as understanding the external environment. The importance of deep learning and challenging ideas is highlighted, and the guest shares insights into his current projects and future plans.

Takeaways
-Powerful state adversaries and non-state actors have learned to fight like snakes, challenging the dominance of Western military models.
-The US military and business leaders need to adapt to complex adaptive systems and disruptive technologies to remain competitive.
-Terrorist organizations have evolved their decision-making structures, becoming more decentralized and adaptable.
-The ability to tolerate and integrate different opinions is crucial for effective decision-making in military and organizational contexts. Integrating hostile opinions is crucial for organizations to gain a comprehensive understanding of complex situations.
-Listening to junior people and valuing their input can lead to better decision-making and problem-solving.
-Liminality, the transitional zone between established states, plays a significant role in warfare and consultancy.
-Framing problems accurately and identifying the relevant data for analysis are essential for effective decision-making.
-Deep learning and exploring diverse fields of knowledge can lead to innovative insights and solutions.
Understanding the external environment and adapting to rapid changes are critical for success in complex systems.

00:00 Introduction
01:28 The Return of Dragons and Snakes
09:54 The Impact of Technology on Decision-Making
10:16 Differences in Decision-Making between Terrorist Organizations and Military Organizations
13:35 The Importance of Complexity Theory in Military Thinking
15:05 The Role of Dissent in Military and Organizational Decision-Making
30:08 Integrating Hostile Opinions
31:16 Organizations that Listen to Junior People
32:42 Liminality and its Application in Consultancy
34:19 Liminal Warfare and Delayed Attribution
36:43 Framing the Problem and Identifying Solutions
40:27 Understanding the External Environment
47:27 Deep Learning and Challenging Ideas
53:40 Current Projects and Future Plans