Your Favorite Research Is (Probably) Wrong: The Replicability Crisis

Ever heard of the marshmallow experiment? The 10,000 hour rule? How about the Dunning-Kruger effect, the Stanford prison experiment, or willpower fatigue?

These are some of the most well-known pieces of research from the social sciences. And they all share one problem: they're wrong. Or, at least, they're really misunderstood. It's shockingly common for all kinds of holes to be found in research that becomes popular, but popular belief in the theory is rarely updated.

In this video we're exploring social science's Replicability Crisis, and going on a tour of famous research that was later invalidated.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro
01:16 Dunning-Kruger
02:52 Backfire Effect
05:20 Marshmallow Test
07:18 Stanford Prison Experiment
09:04 Willpower Fatigue
09:40 Critical Positivity Ratio
10:37 10,000 Hour Rule
12:27 The Replicability Crisis

Cited Research:

Kruger, J.; Dunning, D. (1999) "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.”
Nuhfer, Edward; Cogan, Christopher; Fleischer, Steven; Gaze, Eric; Wirth, Karl. (2016) "Random Number Simulations Reveal How Random Noise Affects the Measurements and Graphical Portrayals of Self-Assessed Competency.”
Shoda, Y., Mischel, W., & Peake, P. K. (1990). Predicting adolescent cognitive and self-regulatory competencies from preschool delay of gratification: Identifying diagnostic conditions.
Tyler W. Watts, Greg J. Duncan, Haonan Quan. (2018) Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: A Conceptual Replication Investigating Links Between Early Delay of Gratification and Later Outcomes.
B. Nyhan , J. Reifler. (2010) “When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions.” Wood, T., Porter, E. (2018) “The Elusive Backfire Effect: Mass Attitudes' Steadfast Factual Adherence.”
Brown NJ, Sokal AD, Friedman HL. (2013). The complex dynamics of wishful thinking: the critical positivity ratio.
Haney, C., Banks, C., & Zimbardo, P. (1973). Study of Prisoners and Guards in a Simulated Prison.
Baumeister, R.F. (2002) Ego Depletion and Self-Control Failure: An Energy Model of the Self's Executive Function.
Carter E.C., Kofler L.M., Forster D.E., McCullough M.E. (2015) A series of meta-analytic tests of the depletion effect: Self-control does not seem to rely on a limited resource.
Brown N.J., Sokal A.D., Friedman H.L. (2013). The complex dynamics of wishful thinking: the critical positivity ratio. Ericsson, A. K. (2008) Deliberate Practice and Acquisition of Expert Performance: A General Overview.

Who Am I: I'm Forrest, the co-author of Resilient (https://amzn.to/3iXLerD) and host of the Being Well Podcast (https://apple.co/3rqbfmM). I'm making videos focused on simplifying psychology, mental health, and personal growth.

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