"India may fall into middle income trap and never become viksit; that could threaten our unity and integrity": former Member, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, Rathin Roy, to Karan Thapar for The Wire.
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In an interview that potentially pours buckets of cold water on the Modi government’s dream that India will become viksit by 2047, a former Member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council and a former Managing Director of the Overseas Development Institute, says he is genuinely worried that India may fall into a middle income trap and never become a high-income developed country i.e. Viksit Bharat could be unattainable. Rathin Roy says: “I have been worried that conditions of India’s economic development are increasingly signaling the approach of (a) middle income trap … the typical fate of a middle-income country is to stay there and not achieve high income status.”
In a 40-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Dr. Roy says there are three “dire” consequences that are likely to follow if India gets stuck in a middle income trap. First, like Egypt, Brazil and Turkey, we will never become Viksit. Second, whilst 25% of Indians will enjoy prosperous lives the majority will remain poor as their forefathers were. However, it’s the third consequence that is particularly concerning. Dr. Roy says the potential for increased regional, ethnic and gender inequality, if India gets stuck in a middle income trap, could lead to a situation that could “challenge the unity and integrity of India”.
Therefore, what is at stake if India falls into a middle income trap is not just the realization of India’s dreams but, perhaps, its survival as a united country.
I will stop there. Dr. Roy presents a detailed and complex but not complicated arguement and it would be dangerous to precis and paraphrase it because I could get it wrong. You need to hear what he has to say and why he says it i.e. you should hear his arguements yourself.
However, what I will mention is that Dr. Roy has confirmed that in November 2018, when he was a Member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, he submitted a paper to a very senior official in the government explaining his fears and the basis on which he holds them. However, he is not at all sure whether the paper was read or, if it was, if it was understood. When he was summoned to meet he was received with “a blank look” on the person’s face.
The other thing I will identify – but you will notice it yourself in the interview – is that after explaining what needs to be done to ensure India does not get stuck in a middle income trap, Dr. Roy readily and on several occasions admits and accepts that we are not as yet clear about how to do it. In other words, we know the problem and Dr. Roy believes he has the solution but we don’t know how to implement it. There are several problems in doing so and he says we don’t know how to tackle and overcome them.
Again, I will stop there and leave you to see the interview to find out more and understand this point better and more fully.
No doubt, Dr. Roy has made these points before, in newspaper op-eds of 1,600 to 1,700 words or in brief TV interviews, but never, as far as I know, has he spoken at such length and in such detail. This is potentially or, at least, arguably a worrying and depressing interview because it identifies a dire possible prospect which we must as a country do everything to avoid and that, in turn, means we must find a credible way of implementing Dr. Roy’s suggestions, assuming, of course, you agree with them.
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