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A chill wind is blowing across the Baltics and Eastern Europe, a wind not of winter, but of uncertainty emanating from across the Atlantic. While NATO publicly maintains a facade of unwavering unity, frontline member states bordering Russia are grappling with renewed anxieties stirred by Donald Trump's recent pronouncements questioning the very bedrock of the alliance: collective defense. The idea, etched in Article 5, that an attack on one is an attack on all, is the cornerstone of European security, the reassurance against Russian aggression that has held for decades.

But Trump's repeated criticisms, his implication that the US might not automatically come to the aid of allies deemed delinquent in defense spending, has sent shivers down spines in capitals like Warsaw, Riga, and Vilnius. Publicly, leaders offer brave pronouncements, emphasizing their own increased defense budgets and highlighting the continued commitment of other allies. Privately, however, the mood is far more apprehensive. Diplomats are working overtime, desperately trying to reinforce bilateral relationships and seek reassurances from other key NATO members.

The fragility of peace in the region is starkly evident, with the war in Ukraine serving as a constant, brutal reminder of Russia's willingness to disregard international norms. The unspoken fear is that Trump's rhetoric, regardless of its intent, emboldens Moscow and undermines the deterrent effect of NATO. These nations, so recently liberated from Soviet domination, are now forced to confront the chilling prospect of a future where American security guarantees are no longer ironclad, a future where they might stand alone against the bear. The brave faces hide a deep unease, a sense that the foundations of their security are shifting beneath their feet.