2024 Elections Analysis - The State of the Race Now

Jeff is joined by Henry Olsen, expert polls analysis from the Ethics & Public Policy Center, to discuss the state of the presidential election now that the dust has settled from the RNC and DNC conventions, and the nomination of VP Kamala Harris over President Biden.

Catch Henry's podcast here: https://ricochet.com/series/beyond-th...

#2024elections #dnc #rnc #kamalaharris #donaldtrump #polls2024

Host: Jeff Sikkenga
Producer: Jeremy Gypton
Subscribe: https://linktr.ee/theamericanidea

Timestamps
04:26 Biden's Debate Performance and Its Impact
Biden's poor performance in the debate led to a decline in his poll numbers. However, this decline was primarily among voters who already disliked Trump but also disliked Biden. These voters ultimately shifted their support to Harris, who was viewed as a more viable alternative to both Biden and Trump.

08:52 Role of Progressives in the Democratic Party
Harris's selection of Tim Walls as her running mate demonstrated her understanding of the need to appease progressives to maintain unity within the party. While progressives have gained influence, their agenda often conflicts with the preferences of most Americans in the center, creating a tension for the Democratic Party.

13:21 Sensible Policy that Unites
Craft policy that doesn't offend moderates, yet sounds appealing to individuals across the political spectrum. Steer clear of extreme stances that may alienate segments of the population. Focus on common ground and shared concerns, such as trust in leadership, to unite the populace.

17:36 Ashbrook Center for Philanthropy
The Ashbrook Center is dedicated to preserving America's history and principles, highlighting the sacrifices made by patriots throughout history. Their mission is to educate students, teachers, and citizens on the importance of understanding and cherishing America's founding values.

21:51 Assessing the House's Future
While Republicans hold the advantage in the House due to numerous seats in Biden-won districts with double-digit margins, these areas have consistently favored Republican candidates below Trump at various levels. Additionally, Democrats aim to capture several of these seats that Biden carried, while Republicans target a few Trump-won seats currently held by Democrats. The outcome hinges on voter turnout, particularly in New York's metropolitan area, where Jewish voters' preferences could significantly impact the results.

26:08 Crisis of Polling: Causes and Effects
The crisis of polling is rooted in the inability to find and use a valid random sample. Telephone calls, the gold standard of polling, are no longer reliable as people no longer respond to them. As a result, pollsters have shifted to new techniques to approximate random samples, which are generally good on average but have drawbacks and uncertainties. Additionally, there seems to be a 'shy Trump' effect in polls, where Trump supporters are slightly less likely to participate, leading to potential inaccuracies.

32:35 Important Considerations for Interpreting Polls
Polls provide valuable insights but have limitations that should be considered. Each poll has a margin of error, so even if a candidate is projected to win by a certain margin, it's possible the actual result could vary slightly. Polls may also not fully capture shifts in voter preferences, as people can change their minds closer to Election Day. It's crucial to avoid robotic adherence to polls and be prepared for unexpected outcomes.