Скачать или смотреть From Policy to Physics: The New Global Tech War

This analysis deconstructs the shift in geopolitical conflict from abstract policy to physical control.
The core argument is that delayed tariffs are a form of coercive diplomacy, while material choke points (rare earths, dysprosium, terbium) function as kinetic strikes, halting physical production.
This conflict forces three strategic pivots:
1. Coercive Diplomacy: The 2027 tariff overhang is a calculated delay to force Western supply chain diversification while maintaining economic pressure.
2. Kinetic Material Control: Export restrictions on refined rare earths for NdFeb-e magnets act as a physical off-switch for critical industries (EVs, advanced kinetics), bypassing financial leverage.
3. Architectural Bypass & Thermodynamic Wall: Lithography (EUV) limits compel a shift to chiplets and advanced packaging, moving the battleground to assembly and test (ATP). This increased compute density for AI then collides with the physical limits of power grids and thermal management, creating a new conflict front in energy and thermodynamics.

Summarizes the current geopolitical and industrial conflict as a shift from abstract policy to physical, material control, arguing that the global technology fight is moving from software and policy to thermodynamics and the periodic table. The main claim is that the strategic conflict is defined by a jarring contradiction: the slow, policy-driven threat of future tariffs (coercive diplomacy) is being countered by immediate, kinetic strikes using material choke points (physical control), forcing rapid architectural and energy pivots in Western industry. The logic is structured around three interconnected points: 1. Tariff Overhang as Coercive Diplomacy: The delay of comprehensive semiconductor tariffs to 2027 is not a sign of peace but a calculated strategic maneuver. The delay provides Western industry with essential time to diversify and decouple supply chains (buying time), while the persistent threat of the 2027 tariff maintains pressure and shapes global corporate investment decisions, forcing diversification without direct application. 2. Material Control as Kinetic Strike: This policy-based pressure is countered by immediate, physical control over critical materials. Tightened export licenses on refined rare earths, specifically dysprosium and terbium used in high-performance NdFeb-e magnets, constitute a precision strike. Since these magnets are non-negotiable components for EVs and advanced kinetic systems, and China controls over 90% of the refining and alloying process, this control acts as a physical off switch for critical Western assembly lines, bypassing financial tariffs for immediate industrial leverage. 3. Architectural Bypass (Chiplets): The near-total choke point on advanced lithography tools (EUV) has forced a strategic pivot in chip design. Since Western industry cannot go smaller (Moore's Law is hitting physical and economic limits), it is forced to get smarter through heterogeneous integration and the chiplet revolution (UCIE 3.0). This shift moves the competitive battlefield from transistor size to advanced packaging, where China holds a massive incumbency advantage in assembly, testing, and packaging (ATP). This architectural innovation allows for computational sovereignty through clever assembly and leveraging existing industrial base, as demonstrated by YMTC's leapfrogging of vertical stacking limits. This increased compute power, however, immediately collides with the Thermodynamic Hard Wall, where the exponential growth of AI compute demand is overwhelming the linear growth and reliability of power grids, forcing a new focus on energy sourcing and thermal management.