Global Express | The Maldives's India manoeuvre

What brings the Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer to India on May 9?

The sticking point between Delhi and Male under President Muizzu seems to be on the cusp of being resolved with India quietly acceding to the withdrawal of the 88 military personnel manning the three helicopters that were stationed on one of the atolls, ostensibly for humanitarian purposes.

Both sides have reached out to the other.

On May 3, the Maldives-India high level group did have a meeting.
Was it to set the stage for the May 9 visit, a day ahead of the departure of the last of the Indian personnel, stationed in the islands?

Prez Muizzu - now that he has won so convincingly- looks set to tone down the anti-India stance.

Is the quid pro quo an uptick in Indian tourism?

What will India get in return?

Keeping Chinese intrusion to a minimum?

What sparked the China tilt in the first place?

Muizzu’s familial connections to an Islamic group, objections to the Indian embassy’s yoga day, the Maldivian hand in the Mumbai blasts that India has not openly addressed.. are the elephants in the room.

Experts say the President’s pro-China tilt, presence of China’s vessel in Maldivian waters, and Chinese infra projects - will be a deal breaker.

The president’s poll promises of creating employment cannot be done if he continues to antagonise India. Did the Kampala meet help bridge the differences at all?

And what can China give that India cannot?

Maldives must choose - China’s debt diplomacy trap? Or India’s naval presence?

The internal political dynamics has seen the rise of an anti-India leader. Neither Solih nor Nasheed could change the narrative.

Was India sleeping on the job? Can India reset the narratives. What cards can it play?

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