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Why Mortgage Rates Refuse to Drop After Today’s Fed Cut:

The Federal Reserve just cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.50–3.75%. Markets cheered, stocks rose, but the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate barely blinked—still sitting near 6.2%. Many homeowners and buyers are asking: “If the Fed is cutting, why am I not saving almost nothing?”
The answer is simple but frustrating: mortgage rates don’t follow the Fed’s short-term rate. They track the 10-year Treasury yield. Right now, that yield is climbing (today ~4.35%) because bond investors are worried about three things:

Inflation isn’t dead. Core PCE is still running above 2.7%, and incoming tariff talk plus strong wage growth make traders nervous.
Markets already priced in this cut weeks ago. The “news” was old before it happened.
The Fed’s own “dot plot” released today signals only two or three more cuts in 2026—fewer than many hoped.

Result? Bond sellers demand higher yields, and lenders pass that cost straight to borrowers. The spread between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates is normal (~190 bps), so until Treasuries fall, mortgages stay stubbornly high.
Bottom line: today’s Fed move helps credit cards and HELOCs, but homebuyers may have to wait until mid-2026 for rates to approach 5.5–5.8%. For now, the golden 3–4% era remains locked in the past for those who got it—and out of reach for everyone else.