Скачать или смотреть Economic Outlook 2025 - Episode 3: Bond strategies for a desynchronized world. By Catherine Reichlin

Episode 3: Fixed Income by Catherine Reichlin

2024 will be a year of credit, rather than interest rates.
As we expect continued strong growth in the US and a modest recovery in Europe, we expect a period in which corporate bonds will continue to outperform.
Slower-than-expected monetary easing could weigh on companies whose operating income is insufficient to cover interest expenses, which is why we favour high-quality issuers.
The desynchronization of economic cycles between the US and other developed countries will also be reflected in bond markets:
In Europe, given our expectations for growth and inflation, the risk of rising yields is relatively low, and we prefer a longer positioning on the curve.
In the US, on the other hand, the risks appear asymmetrical on the long end of the curve. We therefore prefer the belly of the curve, with maturities between 5 and 7 years.