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Weekly Roundup


Returns this week were brought to you by…


…record-breaking AI, healthcare’s hot streak, and “shutdown? shrug.” The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh highs even with Washington closed for business. Big tech rode AI demand (hello, Nvidia’s $4.5T market cap), while healthcare ripped on drug-price headlines and fresh approvals. Small caps finally joined the party. Energy lagged as oil slipped into the low-$60s.


Now, I try to offer just the facts when I do my weekly roundups, but I am going to start inserting my opinions in these quick sections where I feel it is valuable. In this instance, I see two market events that could spell a market top. One, healthcare stocks seeing large amounts of capital flooding in shows investors are running to defensive sectors. Now, when I say investors, I mean big-time smart money investors. Go look at the retail sentiment around healthcare… in fact, here is a screenshot from the robinhood app on Centene (CNC), Molina Healthcare (MOH), and UnitedHealth (UNH) stocks:


Institutional money is getting defensive and retail is going risk on... who is right?


Stocks pushed to new peaks this week. Investors seem to be increasingly confident that Federal Reserve rate cuts are in our future. Yields on 10-year Treasuries hovered above 4.1% and slipped late in the week, which tends to help growth stocks.


We saw and felt this in both of our growth portfolios “AI-Second Hand Effects” and the “Tech-Focused Growth,” which had big runs on Thursday and Friday.


Oil drifted in the low-$60s, which is on the cheap side for this cycle—good news for shipping, travel, and input costs—while less great for energy company profits. Gold stayed near the very high end of its range, around $3,900, a sign that some money is still buying insurance against policy and geopolitical risks even as stocks climb.


In technology, Nvidia set a fresh milestone with a market value north of $4.5 trillion as demand for AI hardware and full-stack systems stayed strong. Just as important, companies are starting to place orders for AI projects — so the dollars are showing up in bookings and revenue for IT and chip suppliers.


Healthcare was the week’s standout. Policy headlines on drug pricing, a handful of positive trial readouts, and new approvals lifted large drugmakers and biotech. This sector behaves defensively (steady cash flows) but still gets upside from successful medicines, which is a rare mix when the economy is slowing but not falling into recession.


Again, this is likey institutional money look for “undervalued safe havens” before the market starts to turn.


Autos delivered mixed signals. Tesla posted record quarterly deliveries as buyers rushed to capture a soon-to-expire $7,500 EV incentive, but it then raised U.S. lease prices after the credit lapsed. Ford and GM are using their finance units to keep lease math attractive by fronting incentives themselves. The near-term risk is that EV demand cools without subsidies; the longer-term support is that production costs are still trending down.


The auto industry seems like a very “sketchy” place to be investing right now. Eveyone seems to be in an EV fight, but no one seems to be making real money from it other than Tesla. Of course, autonomous vehicles are becoming everyones target for success. I think this is extremely bullish for companies like Uber, Lyft, etc. If everyone is trying to “rent” their autonomous cars out, I would want to be the company taking no risk and all the reward (aka the “marketplace”).


Industrial and energy news pointed to long-run investment, even with softer oil. Boeing lined up major aircraft orders and is exploring a new single-aisle jet that aims to be roughly 10% more fuel-efficient than today’s models—useful for airlines’ costs and emissions targets. BP a...